The 2024 offseason for the NFL’s American Football Conference (AFC) East was defined by downsizing, rebuilding, and reloading. Buffalo did away with its top two wide receivers on the depth chart and multiple key parts of its secondary. Miami retooled its defense and brought in a former legend to help on offense. New England drafted Drake Maye, who it hopes is its future quarterback, and got him some help. New York bought low on offense and shored up on defense.

Training camp is just eight days away. As the NFL rolls closer to the preseason and, eventually, the regular season, the time for predictions is now. What will unfold in the AFC East in 2024? The format of this will be a little different. All eight divisions will be covered, but the last week of the season will be covered on its own. Keep up with this series to find out why. All standings screencaps are from the PlayoffPredictors season predictor, check it out and mess around with it yourself!

Buffalo Bills (2023-24: 11-6, lost Divisional Round vs. Kansas City)

Last year felt like the Bills’ last chance. Tyler Bass shanking the kick in the clutch brought back bad memories and resulted in another close playoff loss to Kansas City. A year of inconsistency ended in further frustration.

Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis both left Buffalo but through different means. Diggs was traded to Houston, who now boasts an impressive core of wideouts including Diggs, Tank Dell, and Nico Collins. Davis signed with the Jaguars in unrestricted free agency. In their places are free agent signings such as Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, as well as first-round draft choice Keon Coleman.

This Buffalo team is interesting but sometimes “interesting” is not enough to make the playoffs. The 2024 AFC East is on the weaker side, but the issue is the Bills lost more than its peers did. The Von Miller contract looms large the year before an opt-out is available and it had a hand in the releases of Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyer. There is upside to this team, but the question marks cannot be ignored.

This team will be streaky throughout the year. Sometimes, it’ll look like a top-three team in the conference, then lose four straight. Buffalo heads into what should be a Week 18 cakewalk against the Patriots in Foxborough, but will its probable win be enough?

Miami Dolphins (2023-24: 11-6, lost Wild Card Round at Kansas City)

The very weak strength of schedule (and even weaker strength of victory) Miami had last year showed itself in their supposed “playoff performance” in Kansas City. The Dolphins went 1-6 against teams that finished above .500 in the regular season and postseason. They also played nine games against double-digit-loss teams and did not play a double-digit-win team from November 5 to December 24.

Mike McDaniel’s job is to start winning big games. He has the offense to do it. A receiving core of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Odell Beckham Jr., and Braxton Berrios will elevate any quarterback, Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane formed an electric one-two punch in the backfield when healthy, and Tua Tagovailoa is coming off a career year.

This team goes as far as its defense takes it. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, cornerback Xavien Howard, defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah, and linebacker Jerome Baker are all out. The Dolphins retooled quickly, bringing in Calais Campbell, Jordan Poyer, and Shaquil Barrett. The question is whether these changes, along with new defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver will be enough.

This year, Miami will be in deeper trouble than it thinks it will be. It doesn’t exactly have a gauntlet to start the season, but games against teams like Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Seattle will be early litmus tests. Whether Miami wakes up in the middle of the season will determine its playoff standing.

New England Patriots (2023-24: 4-13, missed playoffs)

The architect of a dynasty is gone, but New England still thinks it’s in good hands. After the Mac Jones experiment crashed and burned, the Patriots entrusted Drake Maye with the future of football in Massachusetts. Before he starts dragging New England out of the rebuild, he will need to earn the starting job from a former Patriot.

Jacoby Brissett is the definition of “he’s fine.” He will not give your team the extra wins needed to jump to the next level, but is a great stopgap and backup option. Maybe Ja’Lynn Polk will be the top wideout New England has lacked for a long time.

The defense last year was around the median in points allowed, so the problem does not lie there. The offense just could not get anything going. Rhamondre Stevenson was just extended for four years, so at least New England has found its main man at running back.

This team has very little going for it overall. The 2024 AFC East is not as intimidating as it was last year, but even that won’t save this team. It will be another year of rebuilding and figuring out who will be a part of the future of the Patriots.

New York Jets

Will this season stay alive for more than four downs? At least the season isn’t starting at MetLife Stadium. This is more likely than not Robert Saleh’s last chance. He won’t get by with another 7-10 season when the most popular player to grace the Jets in years is there.

The Zach Wilson project is over. Tyrod Taylor now backs up Aaron Rodgers, who has an offense very similar to the one he worked with in the summer of last year. Breece Hall recovered from injury very well and is one of the most dynamic players in football. Garrett Wilson now has Mike Williams opposite him, which could produce results if Williams stays on the field.

The defense is as scary as ever. In addition to homegrown talent like Sauce Gardner, Quinnen Williams, and Jermaine Johnson, the Jets acquired Haason Reddick via trade. The front seven will cause fits for any offensive line and Gardner headlines a secondary that forced 13 of New York’s 17 interceptions last year.

That said, expect drama from this team. A fully healthy Rodgers does not give this team as many extra wins as he would have five years ago. With everything that went wrong for New York last year, they still managed seven wins. It will come down to a Week 18 showdown against Miami in East Rutherford.

Next on the docket is the Hard Knocks division: the AFC North.

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