The Atlantic 10 conference tournament kicks off Tuesday evening, with Davidson facing off against Fordham in Brooklyn. Top to bottom, this is one of the best mid-major conferences and one of the most wide-open conferences to win it. Loyola Chicago and Richmond shared the Atlantic 10 regular season title with 15 wins and three losses, while Dayton finished behind them with 14 wins and four losses. Dayton is projected to get an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament, while Loyola and Richmond are on the bubble, meaning they may need to win the conference tournament or go far in order to get the committee’s attention.
Bracket
The Favorites
Dayton, Loyola Chicago, and Richmond are the favorites in this bracket, all of whom have a legitimate shot of making the NCAA Tournament. Loyola is led by a guard-forward duo of Des Watson and Philip Alston, who make up 25.4 points of their offense per game. Braden Norris is their deep threat along with Watson, shooting above 40% from there. Loyola supports a top-25 defense while running a sub-100 tempo offense. If their offense can comply and drain threes, they will be hard to knock out in the conference tournament.
As for Richmond, they have four double-digit scorers, led by fifth-year senior, guard Jordan King. King is pouring in 18.5 points per game while being able to shoot 42.6% from downtown. King and Isaiah Bigelow are the two starters who can shoot the lights out of a building, Isaiah shooting 39% from downtown, respectively. Richmond runs a slower pace than Loyola, in the bottom 100 in the country, has a top-30 defense, and a top 150 offense. They will have to rely on defense and making the opponent play at their pace for them to escape some upsets.
Dayton, the only team that has the metrics for an automatic bid, is another favorite to win the Atlantic 10 tournament. This team’s strength is the ability to shoot the basketball, as they are third in the country in three-point percentage at 40.7%. Not just that but they are effective from the field, ranked number 27 in the country at a clip of 48.2%. Junior Daron Holmes II leads the way for the Flyers, averaging 20.2 points per game, shooting 55.1% from the field. Holmes II is a walking double-double machine. Although Dayton plays at one of the slowest clips in the country tempo-wise, they are ranked number 16 in offense and 80 in defense, poised to be a threat on both ends.
Dark horses
Umass, VCU and St Bonaventure round out the Darkhorse category, with all the others being longshots to win it all. VCU lost their coach in Mike Rhoades to Penn State and still represents a threat to the Atlantic 10 on a yearly basis. They rely heavily on their defense, have a good offense, and run at a slow clip (similar to Loyola). Free throw percentage has been a strong suit for them, so if they are in a game that is going to come down to free throws, they most likely will come out on top.
Umass surprisingly has had a great season in comparison to the past seasons, finishing fourth in the Atlantic 10 conference at 20 wins overall, 11 of those being conference wins. They hold a top-100 offense and defense and unlike other teams in the conference, they push down to the floor quicker than most. The concerning thing with Umass is the turnovers, averaging 10.4 points per game, which is number 93 in the country. They also can not shoot from the line well, supporting a below 70% clip from the free-throw line. They rely heavily on defensive efficiency and rebounding, allowing no second-chance points to win the game. If you ask Umass to shoot from the arc to beat you, they will fail miserably. This is a dark horse, not a favorite.
For the Bonnie’s, they finished in the middle of the pack in the Atlantic 10 and the road was up and down so many times this year. They beat many of the top teams in the conference, including Loyola and Umass, but would lose to the bottom dwellers like Saint Louis and George Washington to end their regular season. They have a lack of size and boxing out, which will challenge them if they have to go up against Umass.
The big difference is they can shoot the ball well, shooting 37.3% from deep and 46.1% from the field. As many teams in this conference do, they run at a slow pace in tempo, but they make up for it with their offensive production. Defensively, they are solid, but they are worse than most of the top teams defensively, so they will have to run at their pace to win the tournament.
Betting Odds
Dayton Flyers (+170)
Richmond Spiders (+600)
Loyola Chicago Ramblers (+700)
Umass Minutemen (+700)
VCU Rams (+800)
Duquesne Dukes (+1200)
St Bonaventure Bonnies (+1200)
George Mason Patriots (+1800)
St Joseph’s Hawks (+1800)
Davidson Wildcats (+4500)
La Salle Explorers (+25000)
Fordham Rams (+25000)
Rhode Island Rams (+25000)
Saint Louis Billikens (+25000)
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