The field is set. After weeks of chaos and teams playing hot potato with playoff spots, the Eastern Conference’s 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs slate is set. This conference’s theme is “rematches and rivalries.” There will be an original six showdown, a territorial battle, a rematch from last year, and a renewal of a 2010s rivalry.
The Western Conference’s field is set, but not all matchups are determined. Vegas plays Anaheim and Los Angeles plays Chicago on Thursday. Vegas locks down third in the Pacific with a win or a Kings regulation loss. Los Angeles needs to make up a point on Vegas in order to secure a third consecutive first-round meeting with Edmonton.
If last night’s chaos was any indicator, this conference will be wild. Here are the four matchups in the Eastern Conference for the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Stats used are per MoneyPuck and ESPN.
(M1) New York Rangers vs. (WC2) Washington Capitals
The New York Rangers have won the President’s Trophy for the first time since the 2014-15 season. They have a few people to thank: Artemi Panarin and their special teams coach.
Panarin had a career year (49-71-120), putting up 24 more points than his previous career high. Only half of those points came from 5v5 play. This is where the special teams step in. The Rangers have the third-best powerplay (26.4%) and third-best penalty kill (84.5%) in the league. At five-on-five (5v5), though, the Rangers have a 50.15% goal differential and a 49.27% expected goal (xG) differential.
The Rangers face a Washington Capitals team that is here in spite of itself. Its -37 goal differential is the worst a playoff team has had since the turn of the millennium. Alex Ovechkin scored 31 goals, which is a career-low for him in a full season.
The Capitals have Charlie Lindgren to thank for returning to the playoffs. His .906 high-danger save percentage (sv%) and .949 sv% in his last five games helped Washington return to the playoffs. Sometimes, hot goaltending is all a team needs.
The Rangers and Capitals typically play each other close in the playoffs, but the Rangers have won the last three meetings. Will Washington slay the dragon in the 2024 playoffs? Here are the last five playoff meetings between these teams (higher seed listed first, round in parentheses).
- 2015: Rangers 4-3 Capitals (Second Round)
- 2013: Capitals 3-4 Rangers (First Round)
- 2012: Rangers 4-3 Capitals (Second Round)
- 2011: Capitals 4-1 Rangers (First Round)
- 2009: Capitals 4-3 Rangers (First Round)
(M2) Carolina Hurricanes vs. (M3) New York Islanders
Patrick Roy has done just enough to get the Islanders back in the playoffs. This is the fifth time in the last six seasons the Islanders have made the playoffs, but the third different coach in that time frame. The 2023-24 season is the first since 2017-18 in which the Islanders had multiple 30+-goal scorers (Brock Nelson and Bo Horvat). On the other hand, the Islanders are one of two teams in the postseason averaging fewer than three goals per game.
The Islanders face a Carolina team that is stronger than the one they faced last year. The Hurricanes got the big prize of the deadline in Jake Guentzel. He has delivered in Raleigh, posting an 8-17-25 line in 17 games. Frederik Andersen is back in net and playing some of the best hockey he’s played in a while, pacing the team in goals saved above expected (GSAx).
As a team, the Hurricanes have a 55.97% xG differential at 5v5, the second-best mark in the league. Sebastian Aho (36-53-89), Seth Jarvis (33-34-67), Stefan Noesen (14-23-37), and Brady Skjei (13-34-47) all had career years in scoring.
This will be the third time these teams have met in the playoffs. Last year, these teams played each other close but Carolina was just the better team. This year, the Canes are projected to put up a performance similar to their first playoff meeting with the Islanders.
- 2023: Hurricanes 4-2 Islanders (First Round)
- 2019: Islanders 0-4 Hurricanes (Second Round)
(A1) Florida Panthers vs. (WC1) Tampa Bay Lightning
Thanks in part to Boston losing three of its last four in regulation, the Panthers have won the Atlantic division for the second time in three seasons. This sets up the Battle of Florida: 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs edition. The Panthers have also gone all-in this year after getting within three wins of the Stanley Cup.
In addition to the nice depth additions they made in the offseason, they traded for Vladimir Tarasenko. He has made an immediate impact on the top line, posting a 6-8-14 line in 19 games in Sunrise. Sam Reinhart has all but locked down an eight figures-per-year contract with his 57-goal season.
Though players like Brandon Montour have taken a step back in production, this Panthers team has gotten through this season just fine. Goaltending has been stellar too, with Sergei Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz combining for 26.1 GSAx at 5v5.
As for Tampa Bay, they are in the playoffs for one reason: Nikita Kucherov. Pending tonight’s game against the Toronto Maple Leafs, he’s posted a 43-99-142 line, shattering his own franchise record from 2018-19. He has factored in on 49.8% of the Lightning’s goals this season.
Kucherov has gotten some great support, as well. Brayden Point (45-44-89), Steven Stamkos (40-39-79), Victor Hedman (13-63-76), and Brandon Hagel (25-48-73) all posted 70+ points, breaking a franchise record for most 70-point scorers in a season. Anthony Duclair has played at almost a point-per-game rate (7-6-13 in 16 games) since joining the Bolts.
The big question is whether Andrei Vasilevskiy can find his elite form again. Since the beginning of the 2023 playoffs, Vasilevskiy has had a dismal -11.2 GSAx at 5v5. That won’t slide against a Panthers team with a league-best +68 goal differential.
- 2022: Panthers 0-4 Lightning (Second Round)
- 2021: Panthers 2-4 Lightning (First Round)
(A2) Boston Bruins vs. (A3) Toronto Maple Leafs
Here we go again. The Bruins and Maple Leafs square off in the 2024 playoffs, making it their fourth meeting in 11 seasons. One year after Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci retired, David Pastrnak has picked up the slack. He set a career-high in assists with 63 en route to a 47-63-110 campaign.
The Bruins’ biggest strength this season is goaltending. Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark have combined for 33.8 GSAx at 5v5, the second-most of all goalie tandems in the league. If these two succeed, the Bruins can and will go far. Should one of them fall off or get hurt, it will be rough sledding.
Toronto suffered a talent drain this offseason and thus saw a nine-point standings dropoff from last season. Even still, Auston Matthews is becoming one of the greatest American goal-scorers of all time. He currently sits at 69 goals on the season, a career-high and franchise record, and sits at 14th all-time in goal-scoring by American players at just 26 years old.
William Nylander (40-57-97) is setting his own career highs in points and assists. Mitch Marner (26-59-85) is back from injury and ready to redeem himself after scoring only one goal in last year’s series against the Panthers. Toronto will need its goalies to step up in order to slay the dragon. Ilya Samsonov and Joseph Woll have combined for -1.1 GSAx at 5v5, which will not cut it in April and beyond.
- 2019: Bruins 4-3 Maple Leafs (First Round)
- 2018: Bruins 4-3 Maple Leafs (First Round)
- 2013: Bruins 4-3 Maple Leafs (First Round)
- 1973: Bruins 4-0 Maple Leafs (First Round)
- 1971: Bruins 4-1 Maple Leafs (First Round)
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