Best Bet: Astros Can Win on the Road vs. Yankees

Today, the Astros will take on the Yankees in New York in one of the top matchups in the MLB today. Both teams are at the top of their divisions, with the Astros leading the AL West by 10 games and the Yankees leading the AL East by 12 games. Both teams are dominating their last 10 games (Astros 7-3, Yankees 8-2) and look to continue that dominance tonight in the Bronx. This will be the first time these two teams have met since July 11th of last year. Before we get into the advantages of both sides, let’s look at the betting trends for this matchup:

According to Covers.com:

  1. The Astros are 5-11 in the last 16 meetings in New York.
  2. The Yankees are 3-2 SU in their last 5 meetings vs. the Astros.
  3. The Yankees are 5-0 in Taillon’s last 5 Thursday starts.
  4. The Astros are 4-0 in Valdez’s last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
  5. The Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League West.

Astros Analysis

Looking at the Astros, they have the 4th best record in the MLB on the road at 23-14. During their last 10 road games, the Astros have averaged 5.6 runs per game. The Astros have also averaged almost 9 hits per game (8.3) over that stretch. The Astros have outscored their opponents in their last 10 road games 56-37, a whopping +19 run differential.

Framber Valdez will make his 6th road start of the season tonight against the Yankees. Valdez has a strong road record this season at 4-1 with only eight allowed runs over those five games. Valdez’s only loss on the road this season was to the Blue Jays on May 1st with a score of 3-2. In his career, Valdez has taken on the Yankees twice, both times taking place in New York. Of those two starts, Valdez has allowed 7 earned runs on 10 hits. The Astros are 1-1 in those two games that Valdez has pitched in.

BOSTON, MA – JUNE 8: Framber Valdez #59 of the Houston Astros pitches in the first inning of a game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on June 8, 2021 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)

Yankees Analysis:

Now looking at the Yankees, they have the best record in the MLB at home at 29-7. During their last 10 home games, the Yankees have a perfect 10-0 record, averaging 5.9 runs per game. This record comes from the Yankees ability to hit the ball well with an average of 7.9 hits per game coupled with 2.1 home runs per game. The Yankees have outscored their opponents at home in their last 10 home games 59-14, an impressive +45 run differential.

Jameson Taillon will make his 7th start at home for the Yankees tonight. Taillon has notched a 4-1 record at home this season while only allowing 1.71 earned runs over his seven starts. Jameson’s only loss at home this season comes back on April 11th against the Blue Jays with a score of 3-0. Taillon has pitched against the Astros twice in his career, once with the Pirates and once with the Yankees. When starting for the Yankees on July 11th of last year, he allowed two runs on three hits as the Astros beat him and his teammates 8-7.

Advantage and Key Points:

As crazy as this sounds, I think the Astros have the edge for tonight’s matchup. Currently, on ActionNetwork, the consensus odds are Houston at +108 (bet $100 to win $108) on the moneyline. The odds for Houston opened up at +120 and have gradually moved to almost even odds. Also, the Astros are at -185 (bet $185 to win $100) on the run line of +1.5. Here are a few reasons why I think the Astros can neutralize the Yankees at home tonight:

  1. The Yankees live and die on the home run ball. Valdez this year has only allowed four home runs all season. He averages 0.44 home runs per nine innings pitched. If Valdez keeps the Yankees uncomfortable and limits them to 0-1 home runs, the Astros can take advantage.
  2. Taillon has yet to pitch a full six innings in his last few starts. This will be a problem with the Yankees throwing their best closer in Clay Holmes last night. This means that Taillon will have to pitch into the 7th or farther, which I don’t see happening against the Astros offensive power.
  3. With as dominant as the Yankees have been at home this season, wouldn’t you think there would be better odds in New York’s favor? With oddsmakers making this line with almost no favoritism towards the Yankees, this tells me that the Astros deserve more respect tonight.

I think Valdez is slightly the better pitcher tonight. If Taillon does not go at least 6 innings, I look for the Astros to take control late in the game. I do not expect many runs on either side, so my prediction will be 4-3 with Houston scoring in the 8th or 9th to take the lead. Houston can hold off the Yankees in their closers with Ryan Pressley, who has 14 saves on the year.

Best Bet: Astros ML for 1U (+108)

Running record of 1 unit article plays: 3-2

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