Best Bet: Bats Stay Hot in New York

The Seattle Mariners (55-48) travel to the Big Apple to take on the New York Yankees (69-34) in the season’s first matchup in a three-game series. The Mariners are coming off a brutal four-game stretch against the Astros in Houston, where they only notched one win in four days. The Yankees look to bounce back after losing yesterday to an abysmal Kansas City Royals team 6-8 at home.

Tonight, the Mariners are the underdog at +160 odds (bet $100 to win $160) against the favored Yankees at -190 odds (bet $190 to win $100). The value for this game is on the over 9 runs combined on the total. Let’s look at some betting trends for both sides:

Betting Trends:

  1. The Mariners are 2-11 in the last 13 meetings in New York.
  2. Over is 5-0 in German’s last 5 home starts.
  3. The Mariners are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. American League East.
  4. The under is 6-0 in Gonzales’ last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  5. The under is 21-7-3 in the last 31 meetings in New York.

Seattle Analysis:

On the mound tonight for Seattle is Marco Gonzales. This season, Marco is 2-5 in away games with an ERA of 3.83 on the road. His last road win came against the Rangers where he pitched 6 innings and gave up 5 earned runs.

On top of a struggling Gonzales, the Mariners are hot with their bats lately. In July, The Mariners went 18-6, the best record in the American League. The only team better than them in the MLB was the Dodgers. During the winning month, the Mariners averaged 4.25 runs on almost 8 hits per game. Although they will be without their star hitter in Julio Rodriguez, this team is still capable of putting up some runs against anyone.

via ESPN

New York Analysis:

Throwing for the Yankees tonight is Domingo German. German only has two starts this year and has lost both of them. His ERA on the season is a whopping 8.22 with most of his pitching coming from late in the game to close out wins. He has not done well in that category either though. A big reason for his regression and low production this year is due to the year-long suspension he just finished serving last year. This suspension came from a domestic violence incident that you can read more about here.

It is no surprise that the Yankees are one of the best teams in baseball due to their ability to score runs. Their stacked lineup with Judge, Stanton, Rizzo, Carpenter, and many more players is a huge reason for this. Judge is currently on pace to break the home run record for the MLB and his teammates know it. They are contributing as well in their wins with the Yankees averaging an MLB-best 5.34 runs per game this season.

The Storyline of the Trade Deadline is the New York Yankees
New York Yankees hitter Aaron Judge during the weekend series in Houston Photograph: Bob Levey-Getty Images/AFP

Final Analysis and Pick:

With a combination of poor pitching early on and the ability of both teams to hit the long ball, I see this game easily going over 9. One of the betting trends in favor of the Yankees is that in the last 5 games German has pitched, the over is 5-0. I believe the trend continues tonight with two hot teams looking to keep their momentum into the playoffs. Look for the Yankees to pull this one out at home in a higher-scoring game.

Prediction: Yankees 7 Mariners 6

Best Bet: Over 9 Runs at -110 Odds (1 Unit)

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