Best Bet: Ohtani Can Dominate Early for Angels

Tonight, the Los Angeles Angels take on the Chicago White Sox in LA. Currently, the Angels have a huge advantage in the oddsmakers’ lines at a -200 favorite (bet $200 to win $100). For my best bet on this game, the value lies in the first five innings. Let’s look at some betting trends between these two teams thus far:

Betting Trends:

  1. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
  2. The White Sox are 6-23 in the last 29 meetings in Los Angeles.
  3. The over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Los Angeles.
  4. The White Sox are 0-4 in Kopech’s last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
  5. The under is 4-0 in Ohtani’s last 4 starts overall.

This is the 3rd game of the series between the Angels and the White Sox. All three games have been in LA with the series tied 1-1. Two nights ago, the Angels won 4-3, and last night, the White Sox dominated the Angels 11-4. With this being the last game of their series before entering into July on away series (Chicago to San Francisco and LA to Houston), both of these teams are looking for momentum to take on the road.

White Sox Analysis:

The White Sox are 19-17 on the road this season and 22-14 ATS (against the spread), ranking them 7th best in the MLB. In their last 10 road games, Chicago is 7-3, scoring an average of 6.3 runs over that span. The White Sox have also averaged 12.1 hits per game in that stretch. Looking at their pitcher for tonight, Michael Kopech will get the start tonight against the Angels. Currently, Kopech has a 2-4 record on the season with an ERA of 2.59. In Kopech’s last five starts, he has a 1-4 record and is averaging a 5.23 ERA on 17 hits in those five games. Kopech has not notched a victory for his team since June 7th against the Dodgers.

via NBC Sports

Angels Analysis:

The Angels are 20-23 at home this season and 19-24 ATS, ranking them 14th best in the MLB. In their last 10 home games, LA is 4-6, scoring an average of 4.6 runs on 8.7 hits. The starting pitcher for the Angels tonight is the dual-threat machine Shohei Ohtani. The unicorn himself has a 6-4 record this season with an ERA of 2.90. Ohtani is 3-2 in his last five starts and is averaging a 4.16 ERA on 23 hits in those starts. Ohtani is coming off his best pitching performance against the Kansas City Royals on June 22nd where he struck out 13 players over eight innings.

Advantage and Key Points:

Tonight, the edge goes to Ohtani’s pitching and the Angels’ ability to lead early in the game. With Ohtani dialed in on the mound, the White Sox are going to struggle to score early in the game. This season, the Angels have an overall record of 39-29-8 and a home record of 22-15-5 for winning the F5 (first five) innings. The White Sox have an overall record of 30-34-8 and an away record of 16-15-4 for winning the F5 innings. According to ActionNetwork, the Angels are -127 (bet $127 to win $100) to win the F5 innings by at least one run (-0.5).

With Ohtani not allowing teams to score early when he is on the mound, I think the Angels easily cover and win the F5 today against Kopech and his teammates. Kopech is struggling to strike people out in his last few starts. A big reason for this is that Kopech is mainly a fastball pitcher. With Kopech throwing his fastball 64% of the time, look for Mike Trout, Ohtani, and more of the Angels to take advantage of this. Trout alone is averaging .620 on fastballs this season, ranking him sixth out of all hitters.

I look for the Angels to win outright tonight in a low-scoring affair. They will accomplish this with dominant pitching in the first five innings from Ohtani and some solid hitting against Kopech’s low offspeed pitch chances.

Best Bet: Angels F5 -0.5 for 1U (-127)

Running record of 1 unit article plays: 3-3.

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