Where to watch: CBS, Paramount+
Time: Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Where: Miami Gardens, FL
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread: Bills -6 (-115)
Moneyline: Bills -245, Dolphins +205
Total Points: 52.5
The Dolphins and Bills are red hot coming off great two weeks of football. Tua Tagovailoa broke out last week against a banged-up Ravens secondary and will have another chance to do so against the Bills. Miami’s passing attack has looked unstoppable in the first two weeks with game-breakers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle speeding past anyone in their way. The offensive line remains stout with Terron Armstead leading the group. He has been nursing a toe injury but should be good to go this weekend. Miami will need their A game from them to prevent Tua from getting constant pressure as he did last season.
Defensively, there has been no drop-off with the departure of Brian Flores. Miami retained defensive coordinator Josh Boyer this offseason and that stability has paid off. While they gave up some huge plays against the Ravens last weekend, the defense regrouped in the second half allowing only 10 points. Star cornerback Xavien Howard was listed with a groin injury over the week but Miami feels optimistic about him playing. Howard gave up a 75-yard touchdown to Rashad Bateman last week and will face an even tougher matchup against Stefon Diggs.
The only team that has arguably been hotter than Miami is the Buffalo Bills. With Super Bowl aspirations, Josh Allen and the Bills began the year by pummeling the former champs and did the same to the Titans last weekend. On paper and on the field Buffalo may be the best team in the NFL. Furthermore, the Bills are 9-1 in their last 10 games against the Dolphins and haven’t lost at Hard Rock since 2016. However, Buffalo is coming off a short week of rest and is dealing with a number of important injuries heading into Sunday.
The most notable of those injuries are Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. The best safety tandem in the league may not be playing the best receiver tandem in the league. Even worse, the Bills will be missing another starting cornerback in Dane Jackson with Tre’Davious White also out. As a result, rookie cornerbacks Kaiir Elam and Christian Benford will be tasked with covering Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. I repeat, rookie cornerbacks will be covering Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Lastly, both starting defensive tackles Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips will be out. This is the most important news of the matchup and is ultimately the deciding factor in my picks.
We all saw what Miami’s offense was able to do against a hobbled Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey. The Bills have a way worse situation in their secondary and I think Miami will exploit that all game long. Additionally, with the absence of Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips Miami could target the interior defensive line as a point of attack in their run game. In my opinion, Buffalo is only favored because of their superior QB and prior success against Miami. But this is a different, hungry Dolphins team ready to finally take down their divisional rival. That’s why I have Miami not only beating the spread but winning outright. I also expect a high-scoring game with Josh Allen doing everything he can to stay score for score with the Dolphins.
Spread: Miami +6
Points Total: OVER 52.5 points
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