In a rematch of last season’s thrilling Big 12 Championship Game, Oklahoma State will take on the Baylor Bears, This time in Waco.
The visiting, ninth ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys come in undefeated winning all three of their games by two touchdowns or more.
Baylor comes in at 3-1 after their win on the road against Iowa State last week. The Bears lone loss came at the hands of 19th ranked BYU in Provo.
Oklahoma State
Through the first three games, Ok State quarterback, Spencer Sanders has enjoyed a breakout performance. The Pokes rank ninth in the country with 348 passing yards per game. Best of all, Spencer Sanders has only thrown one pick this year after throwing 31 over the past three seasons.
The Oklahoma State passing attack is ninth in the country in yards per game with 348 yards. The Ok state run game, led by a platoon of backs, has been about middle of the pack. As a unit they are averaging 163.3 yards per game on the ground.. Additionally, Ok State is number one in the country in points per game with 51.7 points.
Having lost a lot from last year’s squad, the Ok State defense is somewhat a shell of last year’s unit. Against the run, the Cowboys are allowing 111.3 yards per game. Defending the pass, Ok State ranks 103rd in the country allowing 265.3 passing yards per game.
Baylor
Like the Cowboys, the Bears have lost a lot their key pieces from last year’s Big 12 championship run. Blake Shapen, who played in the Championship game last season is now the full time starter. Also, key skill position players Abram Smith, Treston Ebner, Tyquan Thornton and RJ are gone from last years team.
Thus far, the Baylor offense hasn’t missed a beat. On the season, the Bears are averaging 40.5 points per game and are rushing for 206.8 yards per game, 26th best in the country.
Through the air, Baylor is averaging just 224.3 yards per game, which is 85th in the country. But if you look further into it, they just aren’t throwing the ball very much, only averaging 27.3 attempts per game which is 99th in the nation. On those attempts, Baylor is averaging a modest 7.1 yards per attempt.
As it has been the past two seasons under head coach, Dave Aranda, the defense has been their calling card. With seven returning starters from last season, this year’s defensive unit might be even better.
The Baylor front seven has been downright dominant this season. The Bears rank ninth in the country in rushing yards against per game with just 79.5 yards.
Against the pass, Baylor has been a little more vulnerable. Through the first four games, the Bears have allowed 225.8 passing yards per game which is 76th in the country.
Oklahoma State at Baylor
I like Baylor’s chances to move the ball methodically against Ok State’s somewhat porous defense and control the time of possession battle. As a result, the scalding hot Ok State won’t have a ton of chances to drive the ball down the field.
Look for a big game from running backs, Richard Reese and the more physical, Qualan Jones. Blake Shapen will do just enough to keep the Bears in the game.
With this game being at McLane Stadium in Waco, I really like the slight home favorite here. Take Baylor minus the points.
My Picks: Baylor -2/Under 56.5
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