Early on Thursday, Kiley McDaniel reported that Brayan Bello is getting a 6-year contract extension to stay with the Boston Red Sox.
It marks the first time Boston has signed a homegrown starting pitcher to this long of an extension since Clay Bucholz signed for 4 years $30 million back in 2012. Needless to say, the Red Sox have struggled to develop pitching prospects in the past decade.
But Bello has broken away from that mold. He has pitched 214.1 innings for the Sox since his call-up in the second half of 2022. During that time, he has a 4.37 ERA and 187 strikeouts with 72 walks issued. While the numbers may seem average on the surface, it’s when you look into the advanced stats where you find the value for Bello.
First of all, the ERA is a bit inflated. A career 4.11 FIP (fielding independent pitching) shows that he is solid at preventing homeruns and walks. When you look at his Baseball Savant page, Bello ranks in the 92nd percentile for ground ball rate. His changeup ranks in the 95th percentile for offspeed run value, indicating its high level of effectiveness. Bello has a deceptive arm and pitches to weak contact while relying on his defense.
The Red Sox, one of the worst defensive teams of all time with -20 defensive runs saved (DRS) in 2023, have not made significant efforts to improve their defense. Getting rid of Enrique Hernandez at the trade deadline was a start, as his DRS was among the worst at -4. Rafael Devers was worst on the team last year with a DRS of -9. Jarren Duran, while having blazing speed, hasn’t yet figured out defense in CF with a career DRS of -18. Triston Casas was down at -4 in his first full season.
Defense could be another massive issue for Boston this upcoming season. Even with the additions of gold-glover Tyler O’Neill, and supposed defensive wizard prospect, Ceddanne Rafaela. Bello effectively gets ground balls, and they can’t help with that. As of right now, Trevor Story is the only reliable infielder on defense.
However, the Red Sox giving Bello a contract extension is something that should be celebrated. The news that Lucas Giolito has a partially torn UCL could not have come at a more inopportune time for Boston. Reactively, they signed their young arm to an extension. Now the question is who starts Opening Day for the Sox? The young stud, Brayan Bello, or one of the longest tenured pitchers at this point, Nick Pivetta. Nevertheless, plenty that could still happen between now and the regular season to throw off those plans.
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