Mountain West Championship: No. 20 UNLV Rebels at No. 10 Boise State Broncos 

Friday, 8 PM EST on FOX

Because UNLV and Boise State are the two highest-ranked Group of Five teams, this game will essentially decide who represents the Group of Five in the College Football Playoff. If the Broncos win, they’ll also likely receive a first-round bye since it’s still ranked higher than any Big 12 school. 

Boise State won on the road over UNLV back in Week 9 by a 29-24 final score. Hajj-Malik Williams couldn’t get anything going as a passer back when these two teams squared off in October. Williams was far more dangerous as a runner against the Broncos. He ran for 143 yards and a touchdown on 14 attempts, which was his best rushing performance of the season and kept UNLV in the game despite not having much of a passing game to rely on. If Boise State can contain Williams on the ground and force him to win as a dropback passer, the Broncos have a great chance of winning the Mountain West and clinching a playoff spot.

Boise State 31, UNLV 28

Big 12 Championship: No. 15 Arizona State Sun Devils vs. No. 16 Iowa State Cyclones 

Saturday, 12 PM EST on ABC

The Big 12 is all but guaranteed to only send one team to the College Football Playoff, making its conference championship game a win-and-in scenario for both Arizona State and Iowa State. If Clemson beats SMU, the winner of the Big 12 should also expect a first-round bye. The Sun Devils are red hot, riding a five-game win streak heading into Saturday while the Cyclones are on a three-game heater of their own. The two did not face off during the regular season.

Arizona State’s offense is centered around three players: running back Cam Skattebo, quarterback Sam Leavitt and wide receiver Jordyn Tyson. So it’s safe to say that Arizona State received devastating news this week when it was announced that Tyson is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. They will likely rely on its superstar running back more than ever before in this game with Tyson out. While Iowa State’s secondary has been outstanding this season, the Cyclones have had significant issues up front on defense. If the Cyclones can make someone other than Skattebo beat them, they have a great chance at winning their first Big 12 championship and securing a College Football Playoff berth.

Arizona State 31, Iowa State 24

SEC Championship: No. 2 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs 

Saturday, 4 PM EST on ABC

Both Texas (11-1) and Georgia (10-2) are essentially guaranteed at least an at-large spot in the College Football Playoff. This game will determine which school gets to skip the first round of the playoffs. 

Texas possesses arguably the best defense in the nation. The Longhorns lead the FBS in team defense grade primarily due to a first-place ranking in coverage grade and a fifth-ranked pass rush grade. Despite their immense amount of talent, the Longhorns rarely get aggressive on defense. They like to rush four and sit back in zone coverage, but they may be wise to change that strategy against Georgia. When defenses have sped up Beck and challenged their receivers to separate quickly, the Bulldogs have gone through stretches of ineffectiveness on offense. Simply put, Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers had the worst game of his career against Georgia back in October. Neither QB does well against the blitz, so this one may come down to which one has the better game.

Texas 27, Georgia 24

Big Ten Championship: No. 1 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions 

Saturday, 8 PM EST on CBS

The loser of Oregon–Penn State is essentially guaranteed to at least host a first-round playoff game, while the winner has a good chance to be the No. 1 overall seed in the playoff. For the Ducks, they’re either going to be the top-seeded team in the country with a win and at worst the No. 5 seed with a loss. Penn State will be either the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the playoff with a win and will still be among the top-eight seeds with a loss. The two did not play each other in the regular season. 

Oregon features an elite defensive front that includes stars such as defensive tackles Derrick Harmon and Jamaree Caldwell and linebackers Bryce Boettcher and Jeffrey Bassa. Meanwhile, Penn State’s offensive line has played at a relatively average level this season after losing three of its starters to the NFL draft after last season. Similarly, Penn State’s pass rush is easily its biggest strength. Edge defender Abdul Carter is the star of that unit. Even though both teams have an elite pass rush, if Penn State doesn’t dominate up front, the Nittany Lions will likely struggle to contain one of the nation’s most prolific offenses.

Oregon 24, Penn State 13

ACC Championship: No. 8 SMU Mustangs vs. No. 17 Clemson Tigers 

Saturday 8 PM EST on ABC

With an 11-1 record, it’s more than likely that SMU is safe in the playoff even with a loss to Clemson. It’s highly unlikely that the committee expels an 11-2 team in favor of a 9-3 SEC squad. Regardless, the Mustangs are at least fighting for the right to skip the first round of the playoff and to win the ACC in its first season as a member. For Clemson, beating SMU is a requirement for the Tigers to crash the field. 

Clemson has scored 24 points or less this season on five occasions, losing three of those games. In those games, they struggled in pass protection against quality defensive lines. Clemson’s offensive line will face another steep challenge in SMU’s defensive front this weekend. The Mustangs have five different defensive linemen who have racked up at least 30 pressures and four sacks. SMU has a legitimate nine-man rotation on the defensive line that is effective against the run and the pass. This unit is capable of controlling this game if the Clemson offensive line plays the same way it has against the better teams they’ve seen so far. SMU has played the most consistently dominant football in the ACC all season. Clemson has beaten just one team that owns a winning record. 

SMU 27, Clemson 17