We’ve finally made it to the inaugural 12-team playoff with four juicy first-round matchups on college campuses this weekend. With the matchups set, I thought it would be fun to fill out the playoff bracket and predict which teams will square off in the National Championship. Let’s start by previewing the first-round games.

First Round

No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State

Spread: Ohio State (-7.5)

This is my favorite opening matchup of the playoff between two storied programs that have only faced off once before, in 1995. Ohio State’s offensive line has been easily the team’s kryptonite over the last several weeks after season-ending injuries to left tackle Josh Simmons and center Seth McLaughlin. They could be in some trouble going up against James Pearce Jr., who leads all FBS edge defenders in pressure rate (24%) while placing third in pass-rush win rate (23%). Pearce is primarily a speed rusher, which could be a major issue against Ohio State with left guard Donovan Jackson kicking out to left tackle.

The Buckeyes’ offensive line’s worst games coincided with their two losses this season (Oregon and Michigan). Both the Ducks and Wolverines have elite defensive lines, something the Volunteers also possess. If Ohio State can consistently protect Will Howard, he should be able to deliver the ball consistently to his elite group of wide receivers. But if they don’t, the Buckeyes could stall out offensively like they did against Michigan. 

Tennessee 28, Ohio State 24

No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas

Spread: Texas (-12)

Clemson sneaks into the playoff to face Texas after getting into the ACC Championship and knocking off SMU. Klubnik has finally started to show why he was the top quarterback in the 2022 high school class. He’ll have his toughest test yet this week against Texas, who owns the top defensive grade in college football according to PFF (94.0) To put it plainly, Clemson’s rushing attack has struggled lately. The Tigers will need Klubnik to be superhuman on Saturday in order for them to have a chance at an upset.

Texas is certainly the more talented team. The Longhorns could run away with this game if they avoid turnovers. Clemson, though, has a knack for creating those turnovers and is playing with nothing to lose. I don’t trust Texas’ passing attack, and I expect a relatively low-scoring game, but Texas’ defense carries them through at least one more week.

Texas 20, Clemson 10

No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame

Spread: Notre Dame (-7)

The Irish find themselves hosting a playoff game after finishing 11-1 with a pretty easy schedule. With all due respect to Notre Dame’s success this season, we haven’t seen their passing attack play against an elite defense. And they’ll have to do just that when they face Indiana. Indiana’s also been very stout against the run this year, as the Hoosiers are only allowing 3.7 yards per attempt. The Hoosiers must also account for Leonard on every play, who’s fifth among Power Four quarterbacks with 764 rushing yards this season. Indiana has yet to allow a big game from a quarterback on the ground though, allowing an average of 16.3 rushing yards from quarterbacks per game. Indiana’s two worst games of the season, its loss to Ohio State and a five-point victory over Michigan, coincided with its two worst performances in pass protection. If the Hoosiers’ offensive line can hold up, we should have a terrific battle between Kurtis Rourke and Indiana’s receivers against Notre Dame’s elite secondary.

What worries me about Notre Dame is their toughest game of the season comes this week. You’d have to go back to week one against Texas A&M to really find a big-time matchup for them. The Hoosiers got beat badly by Ohio State just a few weeks ago, but I think it was a loss that will help them in the long run.

Indiana 27, Notre Dame 21

No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State

Spread: Penn State (-9)

The Mustangs make the playoff despite having some doubts after losing the ACC Championship to Clemson. They’ll certainly have something to prove as they travel to Happy Valley for this massive game. The top priority for the Mustangs’ pass defense is to take away tight end Tyler Warren. The John Mackey Award winner leads all Power Four tight ends in catches (88), receiving yards (1,062) and yards after the catch (608). Outside of Warren, Penn State’s receiving corps lacks top-end talent. SMU presents the Nittany Lions with their toughest task in the run game aside from Ohio State.

It seems obvious that SMU will need to play its best game of the season to win this one. The Mustangs stand a chance if Jennings and their run defense play a near-perfect game. I think this one is closer than people think, but Penn State’s pass rush and Andy Kotelnicki’s brilliance should be enough to get the Nittany Lions through this one.

Penn State 34, SMU 24

Quarterfinal

Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs. Penn State

Boise State gets to face off against Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl after their first-round bye. I really like this matchup for the Nittany Lions, who are elite against the run and should be able to slow down Jeanty enough while punishing the Broncos with an elite run game of their own. Penn State’s defensive line holds firm here as they coast to a pretty easy victory over the Broncos, who won’t get much going through the air either.

Penn State 34, Boise State 17

Peach Bowl: Arizona State vs. Texas

Speaking of mismatches, the Sun Devils will face quite the challenge trying to get anything going on the ground with Cam Skattebo against this Texas defensive front. Frankly, I think Texas will have played a tougher opponent in the first round against Clemson. The Longhorns will force Sam Leavitt into plenty of tough third and long situations, winning the turnover battle and making Skattebo a non-factor.

Texas 31, Arizona State 20

Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Tennessee

Oregon and Tennessee will be the best matchup of the quarterfinal and maybe the only competitive one, although I hope that’s not the case. Both teams have great pass rushes and can hurt you on the ground, but I think it will really come down to the quarterback battle, where Oregon has quite an edge. I think Gabriel has been the third-best quarterback in college football this season, but more importantly, he’s the best quarterback in this tournament. True freshman Niko Iamaleava will make some mistakes under pressure in this one, helping Oregon secure their spot in the semifinal.

Oregon 28, Tennessee 20

Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Indiana

Georgia gets a pretty good draw regardless of who they’ll face here.

Semifinal

Texas vs. Oregon

At the start of the season, I had these two schools facing off in the national championship. Had each team been on opposite sides of the bracket, I think that would have been what happened. Regardless, we’ll see them match up in the semifinal. These are the two most talented teams in the sport. But only one of these teams has actually looked beatable as of late, and that’s the Longhorns. Texas fell short to Georgia twice this season. In both games, they were shut down offensively and played undisciplined football, committing several penalties. The Ducks have another substantial quarterback advantage, in my opinion, and their offense won’t be at risk of stalling for large portions of the game like Texas.

Oregon 31, Texas 21

Penn State vs. Georgia

Penn State getting all the way to the semi-final feels more lucky to me than deserving. Getting a few wins against a group of five school and a school that’s one season removed from the group of five won’t convince me they have a good shot to beat Georgia. But the the injury to Carson Beck certainly does. Will he be back in time for this game? Will Gunnar Stockton have enough practice and game experience under his belt to perform at a high level against Penn State? I can certainly see a scenario where the Nittany Lions pass rush takes advantage of an antsy Stockton under pressure. But I won’t count out a Georgia team that has won games even when the quarterback underperforms, and I don’t Penn State has a luxury like that.

Georgia 24, Penn State 17

National Championship

Georgia vs. Oregon

That brings us to the National Championship. Georgia will be looking win their third title in four years, while the Ducks are hoping to bring their first title home since 2014. It would be impressive for Georgia to even make it here after the injury to Beck and all the attrition they’ve faced from losing so many players to the NFL. But I have the Oregon Ducks reigning victorious in this matchup behind a big game from Dillon Gabriel.

That makes the Ducks your 2024 National Champions.