Introduction/Recap
Welcome to the TNF Edition of DraftKings Showdown! Thank you to all of you who checked out my Sunday Edition. I hope all of you had a wonderful weekend and hopefully many of you won some money. The first part of this article will always be my same general strategy when it comes to DraftKings Showdown. I will tweak it from time to time as my showdown strategy evolves. Without further ado, let’s dive into this Week 13 TNF DraftKings Showdown.
Lineup Construction
When it comes to DraftKings Showdown slates, roster construction is free and flexible. You can really paint any game script you’d like with the only parameters being the $50,000 salary budget and the rule that you have to pick at least one player from each team. Some of the titles and criteria below are interchangeable but are a guideline I like to follow when constructing my roster.
Captain
The captain spot may be the single most important spot on a DraftKings Showdown slate. If you don’t get this spot right, you can pretty much kiss your chances of winning any large prize in a GPP goodbye. I like to look for guys who play over 70% of snaps to start. Then, I like to look for higher and mid-priced options that have a realistic chance to get over 2x value. If I’m considering low-priced options in the captain spot, I like to see that they have a realistic chance to get 4x value or better. This is rare, but if I’m considering min-priced options in the captain, they have to really be able to reach double-digit points and allow you to get all the top options you want. This typically is considered in a shootout game script matchup.
Core Plays
The core plays are where I try to do two things. First, I try to grab as many yards and touchdowns that are going to be in the game as possible. Secondly, I try to do that through players who are projected 2x value or better. These are typically mid to high-priced options. The 70% snap count threshold is still a pretty good target here. The one exception I don’t mind is running backs that are in a true split committee. Therefore 45-55% snap threshold is fine.
Values
Value plays are where the money is made. I still like to keep a 50-70% snap share when looking for values. This is the level where you are searching for the guys who will outscore the kickers and defenses. I personally have never taken much interest in playing kickers or defenses. I find them extremely unpredictable so I typically fade them and try to find the value out of position player at a similar price point. However, there’s not always a good value option at that price point. This is very typical in concentrated or funnel offenses that are top-heavy talented. If this is the case, I almost always prefer kickers then defense.
Dart Throws
This is where millionaires are made. If you are using plays from this section, you have a good gut or have money to blow. These plays are typically touchdown-dependent plays, in-game injury-seeking plays, fumble doghouse plays, or garbage time while the starters sit plays. Plays from this section are awesome when they work out, but they rarely do. So touch these at your own risk but don’t blame me if they don’t work out. I simply saw a path, but I didn’t say it was a good path.
Fades
Fades are plays that I’m avoiding. There can be several reasons to fade a play. The most common reason is ownership through the field is going to be high so fading can be an effective strategy to differentiating a lineup. Another reason to fade can be to try and grab the points for a particular play another way. The most common example is getting points through the passing game through pass-catchers instead of the quarterback. Lastly, as mentioned above, I take a hard stance in DraftKings Showdowns and fade kickers and defenses almost every time. It’s one less option I have to worry about and they rarely end up optimal to win a tournament.
Cowboys at Saints (DAL -4, O/U 47.5)
This matchup on paper is a fun one to breakdown. Dallas is the more talented team overall. However, the Saints are never an easy out in their own building. With a 47.5 total, I expect this matchup to be competitive on both sides of the ball most of the night. It has a sneaky shootout potential, but I don’t see it getting really wild due to the run heaviness of New Orleans offense. Following this script, I think there’s a pretty good way to execute a solid lineup construction.
Updates
Alvin Kamara is out. I love Ingram even more now, although he’ll garnish much more ownership. Small bump to Hill. Deonte Harris and Marquez Callaway now become viable as roster fillers. Bump up Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup. I now have some interest in Amari Cooper because of the roster relief without Kamara playing.
Captain
Mark Ingram – Hear me out here. I love, love, love, this play. The stars are aligning for Mark Ingram to become a slate breaker on Thursday Night. Alvin Kamara coming back. People have their eyes there. Taysom Hill is getting the nod at quarterback for the Saints. People have their eyes there. We should get a run heavy game script out of the Saints because of Hill getting the start, as well as trying to keep the high-powered Dallas offense off the field. If the Saints get down by the endzone, who do you think is going get that opportunity likely? With all this said, I don’t mind any of the “Core” guys below at captain either.
Core
Taysom Hill – Mr. Jack of All Trades is getting the start for the Saints. If you followed him in college at BYU you already know that he’s just an all-around good football player. He just makes plays; however, they may come. His rushing ability is what makes him viable at this price and it’s kind of a rule of thumb if the quarterback is known to run on a consistent basis, then he’s pretty much a lock most of the time in my opinion. There are just too many ways to get beat by him.
Dak Prescott – The Saints have been much worse against the pass this year than the run. Dak is a good way to being a stack on the Cowboys side of the ball. I think this game stays pretty competitive giving Dak plenty of opportunity to make throws.
Alvin Kamara – I am going to have both Saints running backs if Kamara is active. I think some will be a little scared in his first game back and the presence of Mark Ingram might scare some off at his price tag. Also, the mystery of how efficient this offense will be under Taysom Hill may scare some off. I still think he’s going to be highly owned, but I am hoping he’s in the 60-70% range owned.
Value
Blake Jarwin – He’s min-priced, if he’s active. Plug and play him. He’ll have some opportunity. Also makes lineup building much easier.
Greg Zuerlein – I’m personally not going to play him. But I would be lying if I told you he wasn’t a good value on this slate. He has a long history of nailing 50 plus yard field goals. Perfect conditions in a dome. Stout defense for the Saints at home.
Juwan Johnson – Trautman is out. I think they get him involved with Hill at quarterback. He’s worth a shot in this matchup. I contemplated putting him in the “Dart Throws” section, but I think he’s going to carry some ownership.
Roster Fillers
Michael Gallup – These next three guys are the ones I am filling out my lineup with after those top three to four plays. I like them in this order as well. I always like playing Gallup with Cooper or Lamb in this case because Gallup is often thought of as the odd man out, but he usually plays a ton of snaps, and he actually has some really good talent.
CeeDee Lamb – I like Lamb over Cooper in this one. I think he’s the receiver likely to be against the number two corner. Cooper is coming off some time off and I think it’s very possible he could have some rust.
Ezekiel Elliott – If Dak isn’t your captain, you could just flex both of them and try to grab as much yardage as possible.
Dart Throws
Kenny Stills – He is the definition of a dart throw. He’s the guy who catches one pass for 55 yards and a touchdown on primetime football and breaks the slate. He leaves you sitting there about to head to bed early because you’re so mad that you didn’t think to use him like it was 2014 again.
Fades
Deonte Harris/Marquez Callaway/Tre’Quan Smith – With Hill at quarterback, I’m avoiding the Saints receivers except the ones above who need very little to pay off.
Amari Cooper – See explanation in CeeDee Lamb bit.
Dalton Schultz – With a full corps of pass catchers back this week, I think he’s going to be the odd man out.
Tony Pollard – Too expensive.
Conclusion
I really appreciate you taking the time to read my article. I hope it helps you if you’re stuck between two plays, not really sure which way to pivot, not sure where to start, you were looking for another take on things, or just are learning to play DraftKings Showdown. And as always, play within your means, don’t chase your losses or get greedy with your winnings. Happy Sunday! Stay tuned for more DraftKings Showdown Breakdowns!
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