Holding on to the number 19 spot in the latest AP rankings, Murray State’s Men’s basketball team looks to legitimize themselves against the best of the best.
It’s no secret that Mid-Major conferences are typically dominated by one team in college basketball. Vermont is 17-1 in the American East Conference. Longwood is 15-1 in the Big South Conference. Iona is 16-3 in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Murray State is 18-0 in the Ohio Valley Conference. The factors that provide this success in contrast to Major conferences are irrelevant to this article, but how this success translates to stacking up against ‘better’ teams come time for the NCAA Tournament is a bit harder to decipher.
Have we seen this before?
First, let’s compare Murray State to the Mid-Major team that turned heads in the NCAA Tournament last season. With wins over Midwest region 9 seed Georgia Tech and 1 seed Illinois, Loyola Chicago proved once again, that anything is possible in March.
To do this, we’ll use the greatest source of data in College Basketball, kenpom.com. 2022 Murray State and 2021 Loyola Chicago both rank exactly 41st in the country in terms of offensive efficiency (Points per 100 possessions). What stands out the most is that Loyola’s team last year ranked 2nd in the country in defensive efficiency, while Murray State ranks 28th (points allowed per 100 possessions).
We already know both teams dominated their conference, so how did they fare before that? So to compare the two teams by the strength of non-conference schedule, 2022 Murray State ranks 52nd in the country. The Loyola team that upset one of the best teams in college basketball last year, came in at 139th.
Some experts are projecting Murray State to receive a seed as high as 7. This will be our final comparison to 2021 Loyola Chicago, but the team received an 8 seed last year. There was much speculation about Murray State receiving an at-large bid regardless of the events of the conference tournament, but that all went out the window when the team punched their ticket by defeating Morehead State in the Ohio Valley Conference Championship on March 5th.
Can this team run the table?
If we go off of the expert projections, Murray State would play a 10 seed in the first round. This would mean a matchup with a team like Davidson, Michigan, or San Diego State potentially. In any of these matchups, Murray State should prevail. This leads to a meeting with their region’s 2 seed. Think teams like Providence, Kentucky, or Duke. Obviously those teams are better on paper, but again this is March.
At any level of Division One basketball, having a guy like KJ Williams on your team will always be an advantage. The 6’10”, 245 pound Junior Forward leads the team in scoring and rebounds per game. His season average of 18.2 points per game is complimented by a 54.4% field goal percentage.
They also possess a sharpshooter who can hit shots of any difficulty in Junior Guard Tevin Brown. Coming off a 23 point performance in the OVC Final in the matchup against Morehead State, Brown can get hot at a moment’s notice. With the production of 16.9 points per game and shooting 38.9% from 3, he could be the deciding factor coming down the stretch in a close game.
Of course, there is never a lot of statistical analysis that will tell you when a Mid-Major team will upset a blue blood. That is what makes the NCAA Tournament one of the greatest sporting events of the year. With a team like Murray State coming out of the Ohio Valley Conference, their 30-2 record will of course be overlooked in favor of a Power 5 team. The one thing I can guarantee you is, players and coaches will not want to see Murray State in their side of their bracket come Selection Sunday.
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