In the first three races of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, Toyota has set the tone by winning all three.

Not only is it the Camry’s that are winning, it’s all coming from the Joe Gibbs Racing camp.

Chase Briscoe, Denny Hamlin, and Christopher Bell all locked themselves into the next round with wins at Darlington, Gateway, and Bristol.

This dominating performance from JGR’s three playoff drivers raise the question: who can beat them, if anyone?

After going three for four on round of 16 eliminations in my first preview post, let’s dive into which drivers are emerging as threats, which drivers remain at the top of their game, and which drivers could be in trouble after their first round performances.

THREATS

Denny Hamlin is the No. 1 seed coming into the round of 12. After winning at Gateway, he mentioned in his post race interview: “you can either get on the bandwagon, or you can get run over by it.”

We’ve seen Hamlin confident in the past, including throughout this season. However, after making that statement to the crowd in St. Louis, it seems Hamlin is more confident than ever.

Furthermore, he has every right to be. Other than a tire issue at Bristol, the first two races of the round were near-perfect for the #11 team. With a 26-point cushion going into the next round, this could very well be Hamlin’s year he finally wins that ring.

After I predicted Chase Briscoe getting eliminated in the round of 8, the driver of the Bass Pro Camry immediately proved he is a threat. His first three races of the playoffs, finishing 1st, 2nd, and 9th, has emerged himself as a true threat to see championship weekend, potentially with one, if not two of his teammates.

STAYING CONSISTENT

Ryan Blaney didn’t have much to show for his championship threat at Darlington, finishing outside the top 18. However, the Team Penske driver didn’t let that faze him, and follows that up with back-to-back 4th place finishes.

Blaney’s two teammates advanced through to the next round. Joey Logano also followed up a poor Darlington performance with back-to-back 5th place finishes.

Austin Cindric is the one driver I had eliminated in the round of 16 that ended up making it through. I wasn’t confident in his ability to keep up with his teammates.

While I do still believe Logano and Blaney will move further than the driver of the No. 2 Ford, I have to give Cindric his props. He found a way to keep gaining points on drivers in front of him, and move his way through.

Heading back to the Toyota camp, Bubba Wallace has run so consistent the second half of this season. After winning the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis, he looks like a revived driver.

Continuously finding ways to run up front and score stage points, and even stage wins, Wallace remains inside the top 8 as we start the round of 12.

Watch out for Wallace to carry 23XI to a deep playoff run.

START TO WORRY?

Hendrick Motorsports had a very quiet first round. With all four cars in the playoffs, three advance following Alex Bowman’s elimination following Bristol.

Outside of Bowman’s 8th place finish at Bristol and Chase Elliott‘s third place finish at Gateway, none of Hendrick Motorsports finished inside the top 10 across all three races.

William Byron and Kyle Larson had a points cushion at the start, but have not performed at the championship-caliber level they need to be.

Hendrick is struggling to keep up with the Ford’s and Toyota’s at the start of this postseason, but also dealing with other Chevrolet drivers outrunning them.

Carson Hocevar, in Spire Motorsports equipment, finished inside the top 10 at Darlington, ahead of all four Hendrick cars.

AJ Allmendigner also outran Hendrick at Darlington in Kaulig Racing equipment.

As a team, Hendrick is supposed to be the top Chevy team in the series. After losing Alex Bowman in the first round, will we see another fall in the round of 12? Maybe two? Just something to keep an eye on.

NEED A BIG ROUND

Ross Chastain and Tyler Reddick had solid runs in the first round, but didn’t have to do much with the other four on the bubble hurting themselves with wrecks, pit road issues, and more.

This time, Chastain and Reddick will need to have three solid finishes to keep up with the heavy hitters on the top teams.

For Reddick, talk with Bubba! Wallace has had a great 6 to 7 week stretch. Reddick should take notes from his 23XI Racing teammate and find a way to start running top 5 and top 10 races again.

Chastain’s case is not the same. With the elimination of Shane Van Gisbergen, Chastain is the final Trackhouse Racing driver left in the playoffs.

Chastain is on an island, especially since he was outrunning SVG the whole round. Crew Chief Phil Surgeon and the No. 1 team are going to have a steep hill to climb the rest of the way, and will have to rise to the occasion and prove some people wrong.

Toyota may have set the tone early, but the playoff picture is far from settled. Some contenders showed real speed, others stumbled out of the gate, and a few are already flirting with elimination. The pressure only ramps up from here.

We’ll see who rises—and who falls—as the NASCAR Cup Series heads to New Hampshire Motor Speedway this Sunday, September 28th at 3 P.M. ET on USA Network.

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