This week, six ranked teams lost to unranked opponents. Of those ranked teams, half of them were mid-major schools. Bubbles are beginning to pop early for teams with at-large aspirations. If this week is anything to go off of, the weekend slate will be a doozy. What mid-major games will make the most difference this weekend? All times listed are Eastern time.
Saturday lunchtime: Boston Univeristy (9-9, 3-2 Patriot) @ Army (9-8, 3-2 Patriot)
League-best Colgate will be watching this game with great interest. Both Boston (KenPom 289) and Army (KP 298) are in a four-way tie for second place in the Patriot League and this game may play a huge role in seeding down the line. Colgate and American are the teams to beat, but this game may determine who lands at third.
The Black Knights have a stud in Jalen Rucker. The 5’10” guard is scoring at an 18.9 point-per-game rate, currently best in the conference. Rucker has failed to score double-digits only once all season and his play highly affects team play. The Black Knights average 82 points per game against Division I oppoents when Rucker scores 20 or more as opposed to 68.6 points per game when he does not.
When and where: 12 p.m. on ESPN+
Saturday mid-afternoon: Bradley (15-3, 6-1 MVC) @ Murray State (10-8, 4-3 MVC)
This figures to be a sleeper pick for game of the year in the Missouri Valley Conference. Bradley’s (KP 87) bubble is about to burst if it hasn’t already. One more loss, even if it is to a solid Murray State (KP 114) team, and Bradley will have to make the NCAA Tournament the hard way.
Murray State scores by committee. Four players (JaCobi Wood, 12.8 PPG; Kylen Milton, 12.3 PPG; Terence Harcum, 12.2 PPG; AJ Ferguson, 11.4 PPG) are all averaging double-digits per game. The Racers’ team defense is putting on a Jekyll and Hyde act. Before its most recent game, a 97-93 double overtime loss to Illinois-Chicago, the Racers allowed just 58 points per game over a three-game stretch that included games against Drake and Northern Iowa.
Bradley’s strength this year has come from winning close games. The Braves are 2-0 in games that went to overtime and 4-0 in one-score games. Its defense has found consistent form since allowing 89 points to Indiana State on New Year’s Day. The Braves have allowed 62.3 points per game in the four games since. This game has potential to be a defensive clinic.
When and where: 4 p.m. on ESPN+
Saturday evening: New Mexico State (11-6, 4-0 CUSA) @ Liberty (14-4, 2-3 CUSA)
The Flames (KP 81) have begun to fizzle out. Liberty has lost three of five since making it to 2025 with one non-conference loss (a three-point loss to Florida Atlantic). Being a fan of Liberty this year is not for the faint of heart. Seven of Liberty’s games this year have been determined by five points or less; Liberty is 3-4 in those games.
Conference leader New Mexico State (KP 124, picked 7th in CUSA preseason poll) is one of the hottest teams in the country. An up-and-down November turned into an electric last month and a half. New Mexico has won eight of its last nine, the only loss coming against Texas. During this stretch, the Aggies beat in-state rival New Mexico and have averaged 75 points per game against D-I opponents. Over the last three games, New Mexico State has locked down on defense, allowing just 52.3 points per game.
When and where: 7 p.m. on ESPN+
Saturday nightcap: Oregon State (14-5, 4-2 WCC) @ San Francisco (15-5, 5-2 WCC)
Oregon State (KP 61) is fresh off a huge win in its first year in the West Coast Conference. The Beavers put up 97 points in an overtime win over 16th-ranked Gonzaga that saw a Corvallis court storm. Oregon State’s maiden voyage in the WCC hasn’t been all smooth sailing as their 21-point defeat to Loyola Marymount shows.
The Beavers face another challenge when they head to the Bay Area to take on the San Francisco Dons (KP 75). These Dons have a solid chance to steal a bid if they play their cards right in March. They’re led by Malik Thomas, a name that people should keep in mind moving forward. He’s averaging 20.3 points a game, making him one of fifteen players in the 20 points-per-game club. Oregon State will have to contain him, otherwise it’ll be a long night for the Beavers.
When and where: 10 p.m. on ESPN+
Sunday lunchtime: Tulane (10-8, 4-1 American) @ Temple (11-6, 3-1 American)
Speaking of hotshot mid-major teams, Temple (KP 106) just picked up a ranked win over Memphis on Thursday. The form the Owls have found of late is thanks to the re-emergence of Jamal Mashburn Jr. He’s putting up career numbers in Philadelphia after three years in New Mexico, top ten numbers in fact. His 20.7 points per game are good for ninth-most in America and he’s shooting an astounding 42.5% from distance.
Tulane (KP 160) has rebounded nicely from a tough non-conference slate. The Green Wave lost buy games to New Orleans and Southeastern Louisiana, but have worked their way to a 4-1 record in conference play. It’s thanks in large part to the dynamic duo of Kaleb Banks (18.5 PPG, 7.7 rebounds per game) and Rowan Brumbaugh (14.3 PPG, 4.8 assists per game). Banks’ performance is typically indicative of the game outcome, too. Tulane is 1-4 against D-I opponents when Banks scores 15 points or less.
When and where: 1 p.m. on ESPNU
Sunday afternoon: Robert Morris (12-7, 4-4 Horizon) @ Milwaukee (13-6, 6-2 Horizon)
The Milwaukee Panthers (KP 159) have asserted themselves to the rest of the Horizon League with a well-rounded roster and a balanced scoring distribution. Themus Fulks, Kentrell Pullian, Jamichael Stilwell, AJ McKee, and Erik Pratt all are averaging double-digit points per game, but none of them are averaging 16+ points per game.
Robert Morris (KP 230), meanwhile, has a player averaging a double-double. His name is Alvaro Folgueiras. The Spanish sensation is averaging 10.3 rebounds per game, tied for tenth among D-I players. He’s on a five-game streak in which he’s failed to snag 10 boards. When he does do that, Robert Morris is 6-3. If he can win the boards battle, there may be an upset afoot.
When and where: 3 p.m. on ESPN+
***
Click here for more basketball content!
Follow Fantom Sports on X!
Subscribe to Fantom Sports on YouTube!