Last week we went two for four on my picks and would have done better if the Bills-Browns game wasn’t moved to a dome. Nevertheless, we’ll look to bounce back this week starting with some Thanksgiving bets today. Here are my best NFL bets of week 12, ordered from most to least favorite.
Dolphins (-13.5) vs. Texans
When: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, FL
These two teams are going in completely opposite directions. The Texans are in tank mode while Miami is gunning for the top seed in the AFC. Because of this, I feel the Dolphins’ high-powered offense can win by at least two touchdowns. The only redeeming quality of the Texans has been rookie RB Dameon Pierce, but he hasn’t scored a touchdown in his last three games. Additionally, QB Davis Mills has been benched ahead of this game for Kyle Allen, further hinting that they’re trying to tank.
Patriots vs. Vikings (+42.5)
When: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Where: US Bank Stadium, MN
I took the under in the Patriots’ last game for good reason. Their defense has been lights out and it’s even tougher to score in Gilette Stadium this time of year. However, this week the Pats will face a much better offense inside a dome, but I still don’t think it matters very much. While the Vikings’ offense is loaded, they got crushed by the Cowboys last week and couldn’t produce a single touchdown all game. The Patriots have a better defense than Dallas and should be able to keep this low scoring again. And offensively, we know Mac Jones won’t put up many points either.
Buccaneers (-180) vs. Browns
When: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Where: First Energy Stadium, OH
With Deshaun Watson still not set to return and the Brown’s playoff hopes shattered, I don’t see them upsetting Tampa at home. The Buccaneers are coming off a bye and looking to win their third straight game to get over .500. It hasn’t been the same dominant Bucs teams of years past, but recently they’ve shown signs of improvement and will have receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans ready to go.
Lions (-21.5 total points) vs. Bills
When: Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET
Where: Ford Field, MI
My second Thanksgiving day bet will be the Lions to score over 21.5 points against the Bills. I was going to take the Bills spread, but a few things scared me away from taking it. We know the Lions can put up points in a hurry and the Bills will be without defenders: Tremaine Edmunds, A.J. Epenesa, Gregory Rousseau, Micah Hyde, and Kaiir Elam. All five are important starters on the Bills defense and I think they will feel that loss today. Additionally, the Lions have averaged 25 points per game this season, so this line looks pretty favorable to me.
(All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)
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