The Champions League Quarter-Finals are around the corner. The Round of 16 gave us some instant classic ties, and this round has potential for even more. I went eight for eight last time out. I expect the same for this round. Let’s take a look at and predict this round of fixtures.
Real Madrid vs. Arsenal
There is no doubt that Real Madrid are a quality side, but they were lucky to advance against Atléti in the round of 16. Diego Simeone’s men looked the better side, defensively as you’d expect, but also on the counter. They defended as good as I have ever seen a team defend. I didn’t want to write this without giving props to the Atletico players, especially Julián Alvarez, Pablo Barrios, and Connor Gallagher, all of which impressed me in all phases of play. It was a similar performance to the one that saw Real Madrid advance against Manchester City on penalties in last year’s competition.
Real Madrid may be unbeaten since that tie, but their form has been less than convincing. Villarreal outplayed them in their 2-1 win, and Leganés was able to score two in quick succession at the Bernabeu. That speaks to the level of Ancelotti’s team, though. They find ways to win. I expect them to do the same against Arsenal.
Arsenal will likely fancy their chances a bit more against Madrid now that Bukayo Saka is close to being back from injury, but I still don’t think that will be a huge help. They still have lots of injuries. The front line of Nwaneri, Merino, and Trossard is enough to get by against PSV, but it surely won’t be enough to break down Real Madrid’s backline. The one glimpse of hope for Arsenal in this tie is their defense. Gabriel and Saliba have been THE partnership in Europe this season and conceded the fewest goals in the Premier League. With Liverpool basically guaranteed to lift the Premier League title, I expect Arsenal to throw all their effort into the Champions League. That, unfortunately, will still see them bow out to Kylian Mbappé and Real Madrid.
Prediction: Real Madrid 4-2 Arsenal over two legs – Madrid have too much star power to go out this early. The 15-time winners stay alive thanks to another vintage performance from Mbappé. Rodrygo will be a huge factor as well. I expect Arsenal to at least take a couple of chances against Madrid because Madrid’s shape in midfield can be taken advantage of at times. Manchester City and Atlético can attest.
Paris Saint Germain vs. Aston Villa
PSG remain the team to beat in Europe at the moment. In the last round, they knocked out one of the favorites in this year’s competition in Liverpool, and they are still unbeaten domestically. The Liverpool tie, despite the score, was not close. Alisson Becker kept PSG knocking at the door all match in the first leg and had one of the standout performances for a goalkeeper of all time, rivaling Thibaut Courtois in the UCL Final in 2022. The second leg was much closer but still saw PSG advance on penalties.
We are continuing to see the resurgence of Ousmane Dembélé and the continued developement of Désiré Doué and Bradley Barcola. Oh and they also have one of the best wingers in the world in Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and a double pivot of two of Europe’s brightest stars in the form of João Neves and Vitinha. Their defense is incredibly strong too. Nuno Mendes kept Mo Salah quiet for over 200 minutes. Scary hours for Aston Villa.
Unai Emery and Aston Villa should be incredibly proud of where they are. Emery took over when Villa were battling relegation and now sees themselves in a Champions League Quarter Final. We also know that Emery is capable of taking the underdog far in this competition – Villarreal to the Semi-Finals in 2022. As a football fan, I am very happy watching Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio, on loan from PSG, finding great form as well. They are a very strong side. I am also still super high on Morgan Rogers, who recently received his first senior England call-up and caps. Their attack is great, it is their defense I am worried about. They haven’t had a great season in the Premier League. They sit 9th and have conceded the third most goals by teams above the relegation zone – something that doesn’t fill me with confidence, especially against PSG’s dynamic attack. The fullback partnership of Disasi and Digne won’t be able to keep up with PSG’s wingers and Tyrone Mings is far from his best at this point in his career.
Prediction: PSG 5 – 2 Aston Villa over two legs – PSG will have no problem in this tie. Aston Villa are making all the right moves in their attempt to return to the top of European football, but their magical run ends at the hands of the Parisians.
Barcelona vs. Borussia Dortmund
Barcelona are flying at the moment. They sit atop La Liga with a game in hand and have 2 of the favorites to win this season’s Balon d’Or. They are the perfect mixture of youth and experience – Young players like Yamal, Balde, and Cubarsí and European veterans like Martínez, Szczęsny, and Lewandowski balancing out the team. They won’t be caught out much in this tie. Raphinha has been the standout performer in the Champions League this season with 11 goals and 5 assists in 10 matches and Ferran Torres has been incredible off of the bench recently for the Blaugrana. If it isn’t PSG, Barcelona are the team to beat right now. Hansi Flick’s high line has been catching attacks out all season and the trio of Lamine Yamal, Lewandowski, and Raphinha has been giving defenses across Europe nightmares. The wait for success after Messi has been a difficult one for Barca fans, but with the way this squad is built – young and deep – seems well worth the wait. Did I forget to mention that they have the best midfielder in the world? Pedri is an artist and unfortunately for Dortmund, they will be his canvas.
Dortmund were a team that I had very high expectations for against Lille. They didn’t quite live up to them, but they did advance. They won with an aggregate score of 3-2. Their striker, another one of this year’s standouts and the competition’s second top scorer, Serhou Guirassy, ghosted against Lille. Barcelona’s defense will be much harder to break down, leaving me worried for their chances. Their case is similar to Aston Villa’s. They are a talented side that just will be outmatched in this round. Obviously, they made it to the final last year and their path was similar. They snuck by in each round, much like how they have done thus far against Sporting and Lille. Their road ends here unless Guirassy gets back to form and Karim Adeyemi continues to produce from out wide.
Prediction: Barcelona 3 – 0 Dortmund – Dortmund will have imposter syndrome when they walk out on the pitch and see their matchups. Barcelona have a top 5 player in each position on the pitch and have no intention of going home. The best of La Liga easily takes down the team who sits 10th in the Bundesliga…
Bayern Munich vs. Inter Milan
Many people were skeptical of my Bayern prediction in the last round because Xabi Alonso had not lost to Bayern. He has now lost twice – both legs of the last tie. Never bet against Bayern in Europe. I won’t be doing that in this prediction, either. Michael Olise and Jamal Musiala providing service to Harry Kane should say it all. It also doesn’t hurt to keep a quality side like Leverkusen goalless over two legs. There are two things motivating Vincent Kompany’s men at the moment – Harry Kane’s first trophy and Thomas Müller’s last. Recent reports are that Thomas Muller, the Bayern One Club Man, is thinking of retiring at the end of the season. There is no better way to go out than winning the Champions League in your final match, ask Toni Kroos.
Inter are in great form. They are at the top of a Serie A title race with Napoli and breezed through Feyernoord in the Round of 16. Their defense remains strong, led by Alessandro Bastoni and the versatility of Federico Dimarco. The strike partnership of Marcus Thuram and Lautaro are both on double-digit goals in the league and are not to be scoffed at. That being said, I think they will be it a bit harder to break down the Bayern defense compared to the sides they face in Italy. I think this will be the closest tie in the round and it could go either way.
Prediction: Bayern 2 – 1 Inter – The first leg will end in a draw thanks to the prolific strikers on either side and I think it will take another late winner from Bayern to see them through. Expect a defensive battle.
Round Up from Last Round
I went 100% last round and will do the same this time. (Hopefully)
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Zander Collins