After a wild weekend in Daytona, the NASCAR Cup Series is racing into the postseason for a 10-week chase for the Bill France Cup.

Sixteen drivers look to etch their names into the NASCAR history books, but after four rounds of racing, only one will come out victorious.

But which one will it be?

The last few years have been dominated by Team Penske, with Joey Logano winning in 2022 and 2024, and Ryan Blaney sandwiched in between with his victory in 2023.

As we dive into my predictions for this year, we’ll take it round by round, explaining why each driver will be eliminated — and who will emerge triumphant.

ROUND OF 16 ELIMINATIONS

Josh Berry #21 – The driver of the iconic Wood Brothers’ No. 21 car is coming off back-to-back top 10s at Richmond and Daytona. However, prior to these last two races, he had not scored a top 10 since Kansas back in May. While they stole one early in the year at Las Vegas and he locked himself in, it would be hard to see him making the playoffs on points alone. Unless he can win one of the first three races, I don’t see the No. 21 advancing to the second round.

Austin Dillon #3 – Dillon and the RCR crew got redemption after being disqualified following his controversial win at Richmond last year by… well, winning at Richmond just a couple weeks ago. However, that was the first top 5 the No. 3 team has scored all year. Dillon has an average finish of 20.038 — that won’t cut it in a stacked playoff field.

Austin Cindric #2 – Team Penske has dominated the playoffs the last three years, winning three straight championships. But of the trio of Penske cars in the playoffs this year, Cindric appears to be the least threatening. The former Daytona 500 champion enters with a 19.731 average finish and has only notched two top 5s this season. Darlington, St. Louis, and Bristol make up the first round, and Cindric comes in with zero playoff points and no top 10s.

Shane Van Gisbergen #88 – The hot topic of the 2025 season has been SVG, racing in his first full-time season with Trackhouse Racing and breaking records. The New Zealand native has four wins on road courses this year and enters the playoffs as the 6th seed, 16 points above the cutline. However, while he has won four of the five road courses we’ve visited this season, he holds a 25.0 average finish on intermediate ovals. With no road courses in the first round, it will be difficult for SVG to advance — and he’ll need a lot of help from drivers who don’t give handouts too often.

ROUND OF 12 ELIMINATIONS

Joey Logano #22 – The defending champion has had an up-and-down season. When it seems like Logano puts together a string of strong finishes, he takes a couple of steps back and finishes outside the top 20—and sometimes even the top 30. With an average finish of 17.038, I believe Logano will do well in the first round and scrape by. But with the trajectory of his season to this point, I can’t see him moving to the Round of 8 unless he finds a win. With the Round of 12 being full of wildcards, I don’t see him being able to do so.

Tyler Reddick #45 – After winning three races last season in the 23XI Racing Toyota, Reddick enters the playoffs without a trip to victory lane this year. Reddick and Logano have had similar seasons—up-and-down and inconsistent. It’s hard to gauge how and where he can win this year. With his teammate Bubba Wallace ahead of him in the points and with one more win than Reddick, it’ll be difficult for the No. 45 team to advance. I’m just not as confident in this team’s ability to be a threat this postseason as I am with others.

Alex Bowman #48 – The 32-year-old Hendrick Motorsports driver enters the playoffs as the 16th seed and had to hold his breath just to get in. It almost feels as if the racing gods are giving him a second chance, with Blaney winning at Daytona and keeping him in.

Bowman and the No. 48 team have done a great job this season, but they haven’t won. They’ve done everything except grab a win. Could he do it in the first six races of the playoffs? Absolutely. Has he had any moments this year that lead me to believe they have top-tier, race-winning speed? He has not. For that reason, I believe Bowman will be eliminated in the Round of 12.

Bubba Wallace #23 – This is one I battled with for a long time. I was between Ross Chastain and Bubba Wallace. Ultimately, when comparing the two drivers’ statistics side-by-side, a couple stood out to me. Wallace (4) has one more top five than Chastain (3), the same number of top tens (10), and a better average starting position by two spots.

However, while Chastain doesn’t qualify well on Saturdays, Phil Surgen and the No. 1 team find ways to finish better than the No. 23 team. Wallace has 7 DNFs this year; Chastain has 4. It’s honestly a coin flip, but I’m going to give the upper hand to the driver who’s been closing races just a bit better—eliminating Wallace in the Round of 12.

ROUND OF 8 ELIMINATIONS

Ross Chastain #1 – Well, that didn’t take too much longer. Even if I had picked Wallace over Chastain to advance, he would be in this spot. They feel very interchangeable to me. While Chastain has finished well and finds ways to just scrape his way to top-ten finishes and collect points when able, this is where the “Cinderella run” could end. The top eight drivers in this field are so talented and won’t make as many mistakes as others. Chastain hasn’t proven—outside of the Coca-Cola 600—that he can beat these top eight on speed alone.

Chase Elliott #9 – Alan Gustafson and Chase Elliott have put on a clinic this year. It took them 24 races to finish outside of the top 20—lightyears better than anyone else in the field. However, Elliott has not been able to turn consistency into wins. With seven top-five finishes and only one win, you would expect more from the No. 9 team. I believe their consistency will get them into the Round of 8 with ease, but this is the round where you need to string together at least one trip to victory lane, and I’m not as confident in this team as I have been in years past to be able to do so.

Kyle Larson #5 – Ever since “The Double” attempt back on Memorial Day weekend, Kyle Larson has gone through a mid-season slump. With zero wins since Kansas in May and just three top-five finishes this summer, Larson raises some concerns heading into the playoffs. He wrapped up his season with back-to-back sixth-place finishes and looks to build on that momentum. Even though they clinched the first overall seed in the playoffs, it just doesn’t feel like Larson’s usual dominance every weekend. I’m not sure what’s setting him back, but he doesn’t seem as confident in his execution as he normally is.

Chase Briscoe #19 – The Mitchell, Indiana native made a huge splash in his first season at Joe Gibbs Racing in 2025, notching six poles and ten top-five finishes. After his win at Pocono, you could tell Briscoe was relieved to finally convert a great starting position into a win. Other than that, he hasn’t been able to find his way into victory lane, coming up just a little short every time.

The Round of 8 features Las Vegas, Talladega, and Martinsville. Chase Briscoe has finished 17th, 15th, and 9th at these tracks this season. So, while the No. 19 has been able to produce a lot of speed this year, these three tracks have not been kind to them in 2025.

CHAMPIONSHIP RUNNER-UPS

These leave me with my top four drivers in the bracket: William Byron (#24), Denny Hamlin (#11), Ryan Blaney (#12), and Christopher Bell (#20).

My championship pick is at the end, but here’s why I believe the other three drivers who make it to the Championship 4 will not win this year.

Ryan Blaney #12 – Blaney’s 2025 has been a mixed bag. He’s had moments of brilliance, including a win in Nashville, but has also struggled with poor finishes and DNFs—most of which haven’t been his fault. Blown engines, running out of fuel—those setbacks have kept Blaney from contending for the regular season title.Now, he gets a reset, and this is where Team Penske has delivered over the past three years. I trust Ryan Blaney. Can I trust the rest of the No. 12 team to make sure nothing happens mechanically or strategically that takes him out inadvertently? I don’t think I can. I have Blaney finishing 4th.

William Byron #24 – Byron kicked off his season with a repeat Daytona 500 triumph and added a win at Iowa. Despite that, his success hasn’t translated into widespread dominance. He’s leading the standings now, but his edge stems more from consistent finishes than from racking up multiple wins.While that’s not necessarily a bad thing, it’s just not the format NASCAR races under anymore. You can have a great points season and stack top-fives all year, but come playoff time, it’s all about winning.He has two wins this year, one of them being the Daytona 500—where the top eight cars wrecked on the final lap, and he simply survived to the checkered flag. I think Byron comes home 3rd.

Christopher Bell #20 – Had you asked me in March who I thought would win the championship, I would’ve confidently told you: the driver of the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20, C-Bell. However, his summer has not been strong, and he’s faded in recent months.

While he did win the All-Star Race in May and finished runner-up at Watkins Glen a few weeks ago, there just isn’t enough momentum or consistency for me to pick him to win it. He’s been in the Championship 4 before—suffering a broken brake rotor in 2023 and finishing third among the contenders in 2022.

The 5th-seeded Oklahoma native will look to prove me wrong, and I do think he makes the final four—just not as the champion. I’ve got C-Bell finishing 2nd.

CHAMPION: Denny Hamlin #11 – Is this the year Hamlin finally beats the “choker” allegations? Yes. The driver of the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota has performed the most consistently across all track types this year. He ranks 4th in points, owns the third-best average finish, and has the third-best driver rating.

At 44 years old, Hamlin is still outperforming the Cup Series field week in and week out. He hasn’t been able to conquer the “Game 7” race—the championship—but I believe this is the year he finally breaks through and gets it done.

It feels like this could be one of, if not the final, chances for Hamlin to win a title. He has practically won everything else in the sport except a championship.

He has four wins this year, including two at playoff tracks: Martinsville and Darlington.

The playoffs begin August 31st at Darlington Raceway, live on USA Network.

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