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Steven Stamkos free agency: Where will he go?

Tampa Bay Lightning captain Steven Stamkos will test free agency.

Chris O'Meara/AP Photo

The unthinkable has happened in Tampa. The trade with Carolina for the rights to Jake Guentzel and likely extension that comes with it will run Tampa Bay out of space to re-sign captain Steven Stamkos. Stamkos will test free agency for the first time in his career.

Stamkos publicly took issue with not having a contract going into next season. He took this frustration and scored 40 goals, the second time he’s done so in three seasons. He has missed only five games in that time span. Two Stanley Cups sit in his trophy case. What teams will sign him on to try to get him a third?

Detroit Red Wings

Last time Steven Stamkos was about to hit free agency, Detroit was the top spot for him. He would be the heir apparent to Pavel Datsyuk, who had left for Russia at season’s end. Instead, he re-signed with the Lightning. Eight years later, Stamkos may reunite with the general manager that kept him from Detroit.

The Red Wings still need to renew the contracts of Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider. Players such as Patrick Kane, David Perron, Shayne Gostisbehere, and Daniel Sprong are also on the way to the free agent market. Detroit has around $31.8 million in salary cap space to work with and there has been minimal word on what Raymond and Seider’s extensions will look like.

Suppose Stamkos’ asking price in free agency is $7 million over three years. If Perron leaves, Kane re-signs for $3 million over one year, Sprong re-signs for over $3 million, and Gostisbehere re-signs in the neighborhood of $4 million per year, that leaves around $20 million in cap space with room for error. It will come down to how much money Raymond and Seider demand. If they take bridge deals, that will leave enough money to bring in Stamkos. That will establish a three-year window of playoff contention.

Buffalo Sabres

A roster spot just opened up in upstate New York. The Jeff Skinner experiment ended in a buyout. Buffalo has gotten sick and tired of falling short of expectations. They regressed after barely missing the playoffs in 2023. It’s a critical juncture for the Sabres. They need a steadying presence to help guide them back to the playoffs. Perhaps it’s Stammer time.

Thanks to the Skinner buyout, the Sabres now have around $29.4 million in cap space. Accounting for the likely renewals of these players’ contracts, Buffalo still will have about $20 million to work with. They can afford more than just Steven Stamkos. If he asks for more money to play there, they can and will pay him that.

Nashville Predators

By deciding to extend Juuse Saros, Nashville general manager Barry Trotz sent a message: he wants to compete now. What the Predators do with Yaroslav Askarov remains to be seen, but they also have cap space to burn. Nashville is settled into that third tier of teams. They can compete for a playoff spot, but won’t win four games in a playoff series. They need to make splash moves to get out of that limbo. Perhaps Steven Stamkos is their guy.

They also need to shore up their defense. Tyson Barrie and Alexandre Carrier are both unrestricted free agents in less than 24 hours. There are several good defensemen available, but nobody that will garner number one defenseman money. With $26.3 million in cap space, Steven Stamkos may take his talents (slightly) further west.

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