When: Saturday, October 19, 3:30 p.m. ET

Where: Neyland Stadium, TN

Spread: Alabama (-3)

Oh, how the tables turn. These former top-five teams are looking to bounce back after each had a shaky last couple of weeks. Tennessee was in major danger of losing two straight, but luckily Florida’s Billy Napier had other plans. Alabama notably lost to Vanderbilt but barely survived another scare against South Carolina. The Crimson Tide trailed in the fourth quarter to South Carolina before squeaking by with a two-point victory. They entered that contest as 19.5-point favorites at home. The winner of this game gets its season back on track while the loser sees its playoff chances freefall. 

Alabama

Despite the ups and downs from Alabama these past few weeks, the offense is still putting up plenty of points. The Alabama Crimson Tide ground game is averaging 179.2 yards per contest, and Jam Miller leads the way with 360 yards and 5 touchdowns. Will be interesting to see how that clashes with Tennessee’s elite run defense. The main concern for me has been Jalen Milroe, who has thrown two touchdowns and three interceptions in his past two games. Always looking for the big play, he’s been forced to slow down and be a bit more methodical with his play, which has hurt him. But if he can just cut down on the turnovers, there really isn’t much cause for concern on this side of the ball.

Alabama’s defense isn’t the usual stout unit. The Crimson Tide is allowing 20.8 points and 342.5 yards per game. They have allowed 129 rushing yards per game, which ranks No. 14 in the SEC. That is encouraging for Tennessee, but Florida’s run defense also was suspect and the Vols rushed for a season-low 143 yards against the them.

Alabama also has been lousy on third downs in conference games. It has allowed opponents to convert 46.8% of third-down attempts. But their defensive line is still loaded, and will need to apply pressure on Niko early on.

Tennessee

Tennessee looks like it has an elite offense on paper. The Volunteers score over 40 points per game, but if we dig a little deeper, we find an important distinction. Their production is heavily weighted by success from their out-of-conference schedule. Lately, they’ve been skidding by with their excellent defense and Dylan Sampson carrying the load in the run game.

However, Tennessee’s passing game has been one of the more disappointing units in the nation despite all the early hype for Nico Iamaleava. Nico is at the forefront of those struggles. He dominated in Week 1 in a win over FCS Chattanooga but has not matched that performance since. Iamaleava’s lack of rhythm and accuracy in the passing game is holding back Tennessee’s potent offense.

Defensively, Tennessee is fantastic against the run and has been holding opponents to an average of 10.7 points per game. However, it’s safe to say that they haven’t faced a starting quarterback who’s even close to as dynamic as Milroe.

Prediction

I think this game comes down to who can get off to the better start. I don’t see either team coming back from a 14-point deficit. While Milroe’s passing ability seems to come and go at times, I still trust him more than Iamaleava right now. I think Alabama wins in a close one and and puts Tennessee’s playoff hopes on life support.

Prediction: Alabama 31, Tennessee 21

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