The Red Beard: MLB Wildcard Predictions

MLB Wildcard
Oct 5, 2022; Seattle, Washington, USA; Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

After 162 games played in between the lines, we are finally here, PLAYOFFS! This season the MLB has expanded the playoff field as well as changing the wildcard game to a three game series. With that being said they have created something in baseball for the first time, wildcard weekend.

This Friday, October 7th through Sunday, October 9th will be the three game series. The match-ups are locked in so let’s take a dive into the MLB wildcard and place some bets.

MLB Wildcard Predictions

St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies

To me, this is the most unpredictable series to predict or bet. The Cardinals come in as the favorites at -143 to win the series. I am going to take a different approach at this series.

Game 1 pitching matchup appears to be Zack Wheeler (12-7, 2.82) vs Jordan Montgomery (9-6, 3.48). Game 2 looks like Aaron Nola (11-13, 3.25) vs Adam Wainwright (11-12, 3.71). In Game 3 possible starters are Ranger Suarez (10-7, 3.65) vs José Quintana (6-7 2.93).

With these matchups I will take Cardinals game 1, Phillies game 2, and the Cardinals finish it off on Sunday in game 3.

I will take two bets in this series. Series to go over 2.5 games (-117). Then I will take the Cardinals to win exactly 2-1 (+240).

Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians

This is the most straight forward series I have in this article. The numbers on this series are even with both teams having a little juice attached to them at -114.

Game 1 pitching matchups Shane McClanahan (12-8, 2.54) vs Shane Bieber (13-8, 2.88). In Game 2 Tyler Glassnow (0-0, 1.35) vs Tristian McKenzie (11-11, 2.96). Probables in Game 3 are Drew Rasmussen (11-7, 2.84) vs Cal Quantrill (15-5, 3.38).

Even though I would give the starting pitching matchup edge to the Guardians, as well as Cleveland putting the ball in play at a high rate. I am taking the Rays for two reasons.

Tampa Bay Rays to win (-114).

At basically even money, give me the team with experience, I have seen a number of young teams have an amazing regular season and fall apart in the playoffs. I see the Guardians falling apart this series. Rays have playoff mojo on their side, as well as a number of players who have been here and produced.

New York Metropolitans vs San Diego Padres

This is to me, the weirdest wildcard series this season as far as neither team on paper should be a wildcard team. However that is exactly what they are, two solid lineups with aces on the mound in both games 1 and 2.

In Game 1 two monster aces will take the bump Yu Darvish (16-8, 3.10) vs Max Scherzer (11-5 2.29). Game 2 Probables are Joe Musgrove (10-7, 2.93) vs Jacob deGrom (5-4, 3.08). Probables for Game 3 are Blake Snell (8-10, 3.38) vs Chris Bassitt (15-9, 3.42).

I will say this is the bet I am least confident in this wildcard series. I can see the Padres winning this series maybe even more than the Mets. However, this season the Metropolitans have had that “it” factor whereas the Padres have stumbled into the playoffs.

All the talk is about deGrom, Scherzer being a two headed monster, yet for some reason the Mets do not score runs with deGrom on the mound. Also, Musgrove and Darvish have been monsters this season on the bump.

With that being said the best bet for me is the Mets winning 2-0 (+185).

Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays

This series can go either way, and I would probably take the Mariners if it was in Seattle, however it is in Toronto which makes me lean Blue Jays. Also think the Mariners are one season behind the Blue Jays as far as young talent maturing.

Starters for Game 1 are Luis Castillo (8-6, 2.99) vs Alek Manoah (16-7, 2.24). Game 2 probables are Robbie Ray (12-12, 3.71) vs Kevin Gausman (12-10, 3.35). Probables for Game 3 are Logan Gilbert (13-6, 3.20) vs Mitch White (1-7, 5.45).

This series does not make it to game 3, Blue Jays win in 2. I believe and I could be wrong of course, that the Mariners have won their World Series just by breaking the drought. Nobody on this team has any playoff games under their belt. Usually teams progress slowly, make playoffs, then advance in playoffs, then maybe compete for a ring.

The Mariners will be a force in the decade to come. However I am betting on the Blue Jays to sweep them in 2 games this weekend at (+195).

Overview: The Red Beard MLB Wildcard Bets

  • St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies Over 2.5 games -117
  • St. Louis Cardinals to win 2-1 +240
  • Tampa Bay Rays -114 vs Cleveland Guardians
  • New York Mets to win 2-0 +185 vs San Diego Padres
  • Toronto Blue Jays to win 2-0 +195 vs Seattle Mariners

(No Bet Is Guaranteed, Take All Bets At Your Own Risk)
(Odds Provided By Barstool Sports)

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Rowan Donaghey is a Sports and Betting Insider for Fantom Sports Industries. Follow him on twitter for daily content via

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