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Top Five College Football Games: Week 9

Notre Dame vs. Navy

Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

5. No. 21 Missouri (6-1) at No. 15 Alabama (5-2)

And just like that, Alabama is in danger of missing the playoff for the second time since its inception. Frankly, the Missouri Tigers have been a boring and underwhelming team to watch this season despite their record. All of their wins against Power 4 competition have been decided by six or less points. They got embarrassed by Texas A&M, making me believe they are probably the sixth or seventh-best team in the SEC. The real question is, how do they stack up with Bama? They have been another underwhelming team to watch, although not quite as boring. Jalen Milroe has a chance to bounce back this game against a defense that’s not as good as Tennessee or South Carolina, but I think this one remains close.

Prediction: Alabama 27, Missouri 20

4. No. 5 Texas (6-1) at No. 25 Vanderbilt (5-2)

The Commodores are in the top 25 for the first time in 11 years, back when James Franklin was coaching them. Vandy’s 5-2 start is its best since the 2008 season. You can’t take any team in the SEC lightly this year, and I doubt Texas would after taking a bad loss to Georgia and seeing Vandy upset Alabama a few weeks prior. The Commodores control time of possession extremely well with slow, methodical drives. And it worked, thanks to Diego Pavia being so good in late-down situations. But Texas’ pass defense will be an even bigger challenge than Alabama. And unfortunately, I don’t think Vandy will have the magic to take down two SEC powerhouses on the year.

Prediction: Texas 34, Vanderbilt 17

3. No. 20 Illinois (6-1) at No. 1 Oregon (7-0)

The Ducks were my top-ranked team in the country at the start of the season, and they’ve finally started to look like it after taking down Ohio State. Dillon Gabriel has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country, especially when he has time to work from the pocket. He’s far less effective when defenses try to speed him up though. Illinois blitzes on 42.1% of passing plays, the 33rd-highest rate in the country. The Fighting Illini must get home on Gabriel to take some of the pressure off its secondary. They have played man coverage on the sixth-most snaps in the FBS, which leaves their defensive backs on an island against Evan Stewart and Trez Johnson. I think Oregon’s stout offensive line will keep Gabriel clean, creating quite a mismatch for Illinois.

Prediction: Oregon 37, Illinois 17

2. No. 12 Notre Dame (6-1) at No. 24 Navy (6-0)

This marks the first time since 1960 that both the Midshipmen and the Black Knights are ranked in the same AP poll. Man, I want the Navy to win this one so bad. Do I think they can do it? Very much so. But I also believe Notre Dame has come a long way since the Norther Illinois debacle. While the Navy is known for its triple-option scheme, what’s made the Midshipmen offense produce at an elite level this season has been an effective passing attack that has rarely been seen in the school’s history. They excel at using motion and deception to create deep opportunities through the air. Can Notre Dame limit their big play ability enough to pull away? Unfortunately, I think so. Navy’s defense isn’t special and I think Notre Dame will put up one of their better offensive performances of the season.

Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Navy 21

1. No. 8 LSU (6-1) at No. 14 Texas A&M (6-1)

Since both of these teams are undefeated in SEC play, the winner will take the top spot in the conference with a great chance to reach Atlanta. LSU has been all offense going back to last year, but their defense has markedly improved over the last two games. They held a high-octane Ole Miss offense to just 26 points in an overtime contest and held Arkansas to just 10 last week. Texas A&M has been an SEC dark horse that could really make a statement this weekend. I think this will be a really close game, but LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier will struggle to will his team to a win when facing constant pressure from the Aggies’ defensive line. Check out our game preview below for a more in-depth look at this big matchup.

Prediction: Texas A&M 27, LSU 24

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