With the “league phase” of the new Champions League format coming to a close last week, it is time to look toward the next set of fixtures in the premier competition’s “knockout phase play-offs.” While it is certain that the new format of the Champions League has been confusing, it has brought fans some great matchups – ones that we likely wouldn’t have seen this early in competitions past. Let’s take a look at the ties.
Stade Brestois vs. Paris Saint-Germain
Brest were a very exciting team to watch in their first-ever appearance in the Champions League. They showed that French teams were no pushovers in their first few fixtures in which they managed to draw with the current champions of Germany, Bayer Leverkusen (1-1), and win big against RB Salzburg (3-0). With that being said, they sit just 8th in the Ligue 1 table and have to face the team that sits on top of that very table in PSG.
PSG looked shaky at the beginning of the league phase, dropping points in 4 of their first 5 games. Since then, though, they have been undefeated in the Champions League and have pulled out massive results against the likes of Manchester City (4-2), RB Salzburg (3-0), and Stuttgart (4-1). PSG also remain the only undefeated team domestically and look to continue that form thanks to the play of young players like Bradley Barcola and João Neves, who have looked very promising this season.
Prediction: PSG 5-1 Brest. Brest has quality players but will be severely out-classed in this one. Brest’s fairytale run ends, much to Micah Richards’ dismay.
Manchester City vs. Real Madrid
Before we have even reached the Round of 16, we see a matchup that features teams that many at the beginning of the season would have predicted to be in the final.
It is no secret that Manchester City are struggling. Their defense has been leaking goals all season, and they barely qualified for this round, leaving it to the last match day against Club Brugge. I struggle to see a scenario where Manchester City wins this tie, but I wouldn’t put it past Pep Guardiola, even on poor form. It’s what the best manager in the world does. Registering some of the new January window signings will definitely help their hopes as the dynamic has been much better with the likes of Omar Marmoush making runs into the half space. Marmoush is third among everyone in Europe in goal contributions (15G 10A) and cost Manchester City $75 million.
Real Madrid are the reigning champions in this competition and have started to figure themselves out as the season grows older. Carlo Ancelotti is starting to get the best from summer signing and superstar Kylian Mbappé as Madrid sits atop La Liga. Real Madrid hasn’t been perfect though. They were exposed a couple of times against the likes of AC Milan and Liverpool. The race is close in the league, which could prove to be an advantage for Manchester City as Real Madrid won’t be able to rest key players in the weeks leading up to the first leg. Another cautionary tale for Real Madrid is that there are 6 players that, if cautioned, could miss out on the second leg against City, those being Antonio Rüdiger, Jude Bellingham, Endrick, Luka Modrić, Eduardo Camavinga, and Aurélien Tchouaméni – most of which you’d expect to feature in the first leg. Real Madrid rank 7th out of 36 for most fouls committed…
Prediction: Manchester City 3-2 Real Madrid. While it may seem unwise to bet against the 15-time Champions of Europe, I have hope that Guardiola can turn things around. City brought in reinforcements, have little to play for in the league, and can play aggressively against Madrid’s players who can’t be booked. Expect the unexpected with Manchester City.
AS Monaco vs. Benfica
Monaco are yet another French team to feature in this round. They pulled out many big results in the league phase, being able to win against Hansi Flick’s new-look Barcelona and Unai Emery’s high-flying Aston Villa. Even with wins like that on their resume, I don’t think they see it into the next round. They have found it difficult to stay disciplined with two red cards in the league phase – tied for first with Lille and Juventus for most in the competition.
Benfica and Monaco already faced this year in the league phase. Benfica won that match 3-2. They also ended their league phase with a convincing win over Juventus. Monaco’s last game saw them lose to Inter 3-0 with defender Christian Mawissa being sent off early. Monaco allowed Lautaro Martínez to score a hat trick, something Benfica striker Vangelis Pavlidis was able to accomplish against Barcelona in their penultimate match in the league phase.
Prediction: Monaco 0-2 Benfica: It’s simple. If Monaco keep defending like they are, Benfica will pick them apart with an extra player on the field. They have played before this season and history will repeat itself. Either way, the winner of this fixture will go out to either Liverpool or Barcelona in the next round.
Celtic vs. Bayern Munich
Celtic were doomed from the start. Before the draw, they were either going to face off against Bayern Munich or Real Madrid. They managed to get the lesser of two evils, making their chance of advancing just a tad bit better. Celtic did see former star player and fan favorite, Jota, join back in the January window but that hardly makes this any easier. Their run up to this point was less than convincing, only winning against teams like RB Leipzig (3-1), Slovan Bratislava (5-1), and Young Boys (1-0), teams that didn’t qualify for the next round.
Bayern Munich are always scary to face in the knockout rounds of European competitions. Vincent Kompany’s side is full of stars and their star power will carry them to victory in this tie. Harry Kane will come into this match motivated by his trophy-less career and will likely score a few against Celtic. Expect young stars Michael Olise and Jamal Musiala to put their stamp on this game as well. Bayern are thanking their lucky stars that the draw saw them face Celtic and not the other possible opponent in Manchester City. Bayern are not shy to put up large goal tallies, putting 9 past Dinamo Zagreb in Match Day 1. Unfortunately for Celtic, they’re next.
Prediction: Celtic 0-6 Bayern Munich. Bayern put the fixture to bed in the first leg and rest their first team in the second leg. Celtic try their best but it is no match for the mighty Bavarians.
Club Brugge vs. Atalanta
Club Brugge were the last team to qualify for the knockout playoffs and didn’t look great against a struggling Manchester City side. They also failed to score more than 2 goals in a game in every single league phase match – only getting 2 goals once in a win against Sporting (2-1). Brugge are one of the weakest sides left in the competition. They scored less than a goal a game and rank 29th out of 36 for goals.
Atalanta on the other hand have given games to some of the biggest clubs in Europe and were the first team to miss out on the guaranteed Round of 16 places – finishing one point behind Aston Villa. They see themselves in a title fight in the Serie A for the first time in a few years and this squad looks amazing. They have players like Ademola Lookman who was 2024 African Footballer of the Year and nominated for the Ballon d’Or following his hat trick in the Europa League Final vs. Leverkusen. They also talented, sought out players like Éderson in midfield and Giorgio Scalvini at the back. This team is strong from top to bottom.
Prediction: Atalanta 3-0 Club Brugge. Atalanta are flying at the moment and Club Brugge barely qualified for this stage. Atalanta goes on to face either Lille or Aston Villa. Don’t be surprised if Atalanta go on a run similar to the one they had in 2020.
Juventus vs. PSV Eindhoven
Juve have not looked good in this competition, which explains why they finished 20th in the table. I feel that they drew too many times for a club of their stature. They shouldn’t be worried though. They have a plethora of young talent on their books. Kenan Yıldız and Francisco Conceição look like the future of the Old Lady and Dušan Vlahović continues to prove his goal-scoring prowess. These two teams matched up in the first match day and Yıldız scored what could be the goal of the tournament in a 3-1 win.
PSV exceeded expectations in the league phase, winning 4 games. Their top goal scorer, Malik Tillman, has USMNT fans excited for 2026 with his performances where he netted 3 times. They also have Ricardo Pepi who is trying to earn his spot up front for the U.S. as well. They are on good form and gave the table leaders, Liverpool, their only loss in the Champions League this season in their last game.
Prediction: Juventus 2-2 PSV (4-3) Juventus goes through on pens. I think that this will be a very exciting tie and that it will be close. It will take penalties to decide this one.
Sporting CP vs. Borussia Dortmund
Sporting’s time following Ruben Amorim saw them go winless in the league phase. They lost to RB Leipzig and Club Brugge while drawing with Bologna. Leipzig was perhaps the most disappointing team in this year’s competition and Bologna were knocked out of the competition. They do however sit 6 points clear at the top of Liga Nos, allowing them to focus a bit more on this match-up against Borussia Dortmund. Viktor Gyökeres has been one of the best strikers on the planet this season and will likely be a handful for Dortmund’s yellow wall.
Last year’s runners-up, Borussia Dortmund are a squad full of quality – it is the reason that they made last year’s Final. They have experienced players like Julian Brandt, Emre Can, and Marcel Sabitzer in midfield and have a scary front line. Despite losing Donyell Malen to Aston Villa, Dortmund can still lineup with Jamie Gittens on the left, the competition’s top goal scorer, Serhou Guirassy, through the middle, and Karim Adeyemi on the right. While Dortmund also lost to Bologna, they looked better than Sporting and are scoring goals for fun.
Prediction: Sporting 3-5 Dortmund. This one screams high scoring. Dortmund are the second-highest-scoring club in the competition and Sporting have one of the most sought-after goal scorers in Europe. Expect Gyökeres and Guirassy to get on the score sheet a couple of times.
Feyenoord vs. AC Milan
Feyenoord saw great results against Manchester City in which they were able to come back from 3 goals down with 15 minutes left to play to rescue a draw and Bayern Munich who they held scoreless in a 3-0 win. Much of Feyenoord’s production ran through Santiago Giménez who has now jumped ship to the other club in this tie, leaving Feyenoord with less than a glimpse of hope for making the Round of 16. Giménez scored 5 and assisted 1 in their impressive league phase.
AC Milan are very smart. Giménez is obviously a quality player but they picked the perfect time to sign him – right before they play his former team. Milan have been needing a number 9 for a while now. Álvaro Morata, who they signed following the Euros, hasn’t worked out and has already left to join Galatasaray in Turkey. Giménez fits the profile of the player they needed and it’s hard to believe that they knew he was their guy before the draw. Their new signings of Santiago Giménez and João Félix have transformed the ceiling of their front line which already consisted of amazing players like Rafael Leão and Christian Pulisic. They also bolstered the squad with the signing of Kyle Walker from Manchester City. Sérgio Conceição’s squad looks dangerous.
Prediction: Feyenoord 1-4 Milan. Without Giménez, Feyenoord are going to have little to no chance against this rebuilt Milan side. AC Milan will go through to the Round of 16 with Feyenoord’s best player this season.
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Zander Collins