The UFC is set for one of the most monumental cards in promotion history this weekend. UFC 306 will not only represent Mexican Independence Day but will also be the first live sporting event held in the newly built Las Vegas Sphere.

Headlining the card is a blockbuster Bantamweight title fight between fan favorite “Suga” Sean O’Malley and Georgian contender Merab Dvalishvili. O’Malley took the title by knockout from Dvalishvili’s teammate Aljamain Sterling, which makes this a contentious matchup. Dvalishvili is a tremendous fighter riding a ten-fight win streak and will have a grappling advantage in this contest.

The Co-Main event will feature the trilogy fight between current champion Alexa Grasso and former longtime champion Valentina Shevchenko.  Also on the card, finishers Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes go to war in a battle of top-fifteen featherweights. The UFC 306 prelims will begin at 6:30 p.m. CST, with the main card starting at 9 p.m. CST.

(C) Sean O’Malley (18-1) vs. #1 Merab Dvalishvili (17-4)

The Main Event this weekend between Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili showcases two of the best fighters in the sport. O’Malley is 5’11 at 135 pounds and has a highlight reel of incredible knockouts. One of his knockout victims is former champion Aljamain Sterling, who trains with Dvalishvili at team Serra-Longo in New York.

Dvalishvili is a world-class grappler who just defeated Olympic Gold medalist and former two-weight world champion Henry Cejudo, picking him up over his shoulder and slamming him during their fight. When facing former champion Petr Yan, Dvalishvili attempted a UFC-record 52 takedowns over five rounds. Dvalishvili represents the toughest test in O’Malley’s young career.

Currently, Online sportsbooks have the champion O’Malley as a slight betting favorite (-135). This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup. In order for Merab to win he has to fight perfectly for 25 minutes, out-grappling Sean and controlling large portions of the rounds.

O’Malley can end this with one punch, just like the Sterling fight. Dvalishvili will be the shorter fighter by five inches and also has a four-inch reach disadvantage. Rumors of staph infection and a hard weight cut make me lean towards O’Malley in this monumental main event.

Prediction: Sean O’Malley by KO/TKO

(C) Alexa Grasso (16-3-1) vs. #1 Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-1)

The women’s Flyweight title is on the line in the co-main event. Former champion Valentina Shevchenko will get one more crack at the title she lost to current champion Alexa Grasso. In their first fight Shevchenko through a spinning kick that allowed Grasso to jump on her back and secure a submission victory. A shocking win at the time which made Grasso the first-ever female champion from Mexico. When the two had a rematch in September of last year the fight ended in a controversial Draw. This trilogy contest will put an end to a highly competitive rivalry. Currently, online sportsbooks have Grasso as the favorite (-140).

On the feet, Grasso has been able to surprise Shevchenko with her boxing and is the younger fighter by five years. Shevchenko was one of the longest-reigning champions in UFC history and has a wealth of experience to fall back on. This is a tough fight to predict, but historically the younger fighter wins trilogy fights at an extremely high percentage.

Prediction: Alexa Grasso by Decision

#3 Brian Ortega (16-3) vs. #13 Diego Lopes (25-6)

The featured fight of UFC 306 will be a featherweight war between contenders Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes. Ortega is coming off an impressive submission win against Yair Rodriguez but pulled out of this contest when it was originally scheduled in the summer. Lopes stepped up and fought Dan Ige on less than one day’s notice, earning a decision win after a hard-fought 15 minutes. This is a massive step up in competition for Lopes, who will be facing a former title challenger for the first time.

Both of these fighters are Jiu-Jitsu black belts with Ortega earning his under the Gracie family. When two talented grapplers face off, repeatedly the fight takes place standing. If both fighters decide the juice isn’t worth the squeeze on the ground, I favor the striking of Lopes. At UFC 300 Lopes brutally stopped respected prospect Sadiq Yusuff with punches and has ten wins by knockout on his record. Ortega hasn’t won a fight by knockout since 2018. I’m siding with the 29-year-old betting favorite (-185) in this one.

Prediction: Diego Lopes by KO/TKO

UFC 306 Prelims:

The UFC 306 prelims begin on ESPN+ at 6:30 CST. Many Mexican fighters from across the UFC roster will be highlighted on the prelims including Raul Rosas Jr. (9-1). The 19-year-old will make his fifth trip to the UFC cage, this time facing all-action Chinese vet Aoriqileng (25-11). I like Rosas Jr. in this matchup because of a significant advantage on the ground. Aoriqileng has been submitted three times already in his career and seems to be a perfect matchup for the Jiu-Jitsu wizard.

Prediction: Raul Rosas Jr. by Submission

Also on the UFC 306 prelims, Lightweight strikers Manuel Torres (15-2) and Ignacio Bahamondes (15-5) are scheduled for a scrap that many experts believe can be “Fight of the Night”. Torres has 14 finishes in his 15 pro wins, 7 of which have come by knockout. Bahamondes is extremely long for the 155-pound weight class (6’3) and is a creative and talented striker himself. Bahamondes has 10 wins by knockout, but neither of these fighters has been stopped by strikes in their career. This has all the makings for a fantastic fight.

Prediction: Manuel Torres by Decision

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