Which QB will be drafted first? That’s always the question as the draft approaches. It doesn’t matter if it’s a good class of QBs or not. Everyone wants to know which team is betting it all on their next franchise signal caller.

This year is one of the light QB classes. With six names separating themselves as Day 1 or Day 2 prospects, but no clear-cut franchise changer. That can create parody among media mock drafts and team big boards

The NFL Draft is now just seven weeks away. And two quarterbacks have seemingly broken away from the pack. But which QB will be drafted first?

The Quarterbacks

Two QBs are breaking away as the top two options in this year’s class. That’s Pitt’s Kenny Pickett, and Liberty’s Malik Willis.

Simply put. Kenny Pickett is regarded as the safer option. Whereas Malik Willis has the higher ceiling but most risk.

Pickett was a four year starter at Pitt. In those four years he threw 80 TDs and 31 INTs for 11,794 yards. He also completed 62.5% of his passes.

Malik Willis was just a two year starter at Liberty after transferring from Auburn. In those two years he completed 62.4% of his passes for 5,107 yards 47 TDs and 18 INTs.

There’s something to be said positively and negatively for both players based on stats alone. Pickett, the longtime starter, was productive all four years. But he didn’t have a dominant season until his fourth year starting as a fifth year senior. It is sometimes troubling when a college player only dominates as a 22-23 year old.

Willis on the other hand, wasn’t a college starter until his junior year. And had to transfer to mid major Liberty to do it. He was able to produce right away, but never truly dominated in either season.

Those are just the stats. And they certainly aren’t everything. So how will teams decide who’s higher on their board?

Two Schools of Thought

After the AFC playoffs this year GMs are sure to have two schools of thought when looking for a QB this year.

1. Find the franchise guy with absolute freak abilities.

If you watched the Buffalo Bills – Kansas City Chiefs Divisional Round matchup you know how special those quarterbacks were. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes dazzled fans and teammates while ripping defenses to shreds. Both players showed immense ability to throw the ball, as well as take pressure in the pocket and scramble. Coming out of that game everyone was saying how you need the QB with physical traits and a special arm.

2. Find the “game manager” with accuracy and confidence.

Fast-forward just one week. Where Joe Burrow’s Bengals defeated Mahomes and the Chiefs to go to the Super Bowl. Burrow is a special player in his own right, but not because of his arms or legs. Instead he is an extremely smart, accurate, and unflappable QB. His only deep throws are designed fly routes to his All-Pro level receivers (which is more about timing than arm strength) and he only scrambles when the defense gives him room.

So which guy is better to have? The player with all the talent and traits of a Mahomes or Allen, or the poise and swagger of Burrow? That’ll be for NFL GMs to decide.

Who Is Looking?

We’ve discussed the supply of the QBs at the top of this class. But who is in demand? The Carolina Panthers (6), Denver Broncos (9), and Washington Commanders (11) are the teams at the top of the draft in need of a quarterback. With the New Orleans Saints (18) and Pittsburgh Steelers (20) at the end of the first round also potentially in the market. The Cleveland Browns (13) could also be a wild card team interested.

There’s an interesting juxtaposition that could take place for those at the top of the draft. On one hand you would rather take a player with higher upside earlier in the draft. On the other hand, all three of those teams are under pressure to win now. Making a safer, more ready to play QB potentially a better option.

Passing on Malik Willis would likely help more in the short term. Pickett is better positioned to come in Day 1 and win football games. And Willis is likely better suited to sit and wait a year before starting. But can a coach or GM on the hot seat convince ownership to keep them around a year or two while Willis prepares? This short term view could lead to Pickett being the selection.

On the other hand, what if you’re the team that passes on Willis in favor of Pickett, and Willis explodes to his full potential in his first year or two? That’d be like taking Sam Darnold over Josh Allen. Or Mitchell Trubisky over Patrick Mahomes. That sort of mistake can also cost one their job. These are decisions coaches and GMs have to make.

Who Will It Be?

So which QB will be drafted first? As the draft order sits right now, I’ll predict Kenny Pickett is the first QB taken at six overall to the Panthers. Head Coach Matt Rhule will be on the hot seat this year. After failed experiments with Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Darnold leading to the Hail Mary acquisition of Cam Newton. And the mysterious firing of highly regarded Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady, Rhule will have a lot to prove after two five-win seasons.

Rhule also has a history with Pickett. The head coach recruited Pickett heavily while the HC at Temple University, to the point that Pickett tweeted, “Honored to say that I have COMMITTED TO Temple University!!’’ before his senior year of high school.

In answering which QB will be drafted first, ultimately I think Joe Burrow’s performance this season will be the lasting memory in the minds of coaches and GMs. And the traits of Willis will not outweigh the improvement still required in his game. Once again, we’ll see a franchise take a more short-sighted approach. And we’ll just have to wait and see how it works out.

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