It is a distinct possibility that in 2024 the AFC South will have three teams finish at or above .500 for the first time since 2018. The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts both have promising pools of talent, Jacksonville has the pieces to bounce back, and Tennessee has potential as a surprise team.
This division’s championship has been decided on the last week of the season two years in a row. Will the 2024 season make it three years in a row for the AFC South? Who will rise to the occasion and who will stumble? All season screenshots are taken from PlayoffPredictors.
Catch up on the AFC East and AFC North here.
Houston Texans (2023-24: 10-7, lost AFC Divisional at Baltimore)
The biggest surprise of last season enters the new year with expectations. Houston saw a seven-win improvement and returned to the playoffs for the first time since blowing a 24-0 lead to Kansas City. The youth movement took over and C.J. Stroud led the charge.
Stroud’s passing yards per game was the highest in the league among quarterbacks who played more than half of the season. Had he not missed two games and played to his average in those games, he would have finished with the most passing yards in the NFL.
He got plenty of support from his receiving core, namely Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Collins averaged 86.5 receiving yards per game. Dell caught seven touchdowns before his rookie campaign was cut short due to injury. The good news for them is they have a new friend in Stefon Diggs.
The problem is Houston is getting thrown into the fire this year. Its strength of schedule is among the highest in the league. Houston has two tough four-game stretches from Week 8 to Week 11 and Week 13 to Week 17. That will define the Texans this season. Was last season a fluke or is Houston here to stay?
Indianapolis Colts (2023-24: 9-8, missed playoffs)
Indianapolis also stunned the NFL with a huge turnaround. Though the Colts didn’t make the playoffs, they were arguably as impressive as Houston. The AFC South division title came down to an inexplicable drop, a wrong Indianapolis looks to right in 2024.
The good news for Indianapolis is the organization seems to have learned its lesson from years past. They brought back Jonathan Taylor long-term and he gradually regained his form after a holdout. They also shut down a beat-up Anthony Richardson so he could recover. Whether it cost the Colts the postseason or not, Richardson’s health is key if Indianapolis is to go anywhere.
He will look to his young receiving core to help him out. Michael Pittman caught 109 passes, the fifth-most in the NFL last year. The 26-year-old is joined by 22-year-old Josh Downs and 21-year-old rookie Adonai Mitchell. Accompanied by a defense with Zaire Franklin (second in the NFL in tackles last year), Kenny Moore II (two interceptions returned for a touchdown last year), and a defensive line led by Kwity Paye, Indianapolis’ potential for explosiveness is high.
That said, potential does not always equal results. It will be a rocky road for the Colts, but an easy end to the season puts them back into playoff contention. Indianapolis hosts Jacksonville on Week 18 in a game with playoff (and possibly divisional) implications.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2023-24: 9-8, missed playoffs)
The Jacksonville Jaguars went from hero to zero faster than you could say “Tony Khan.” After Trevor Lawrence suffered multiple injuries in the same game, Jacksonville fell apart and never recovered. Barring another drastic setback, though, the Jaguars aim to return to the postseason for the second time in three seasons. They last did this in 2007, making the playoffs after missing in 2006 but making in 2005.
Josh Hines-Allen headlines a slightly reworked defense that has playmakers throughout. Allen accrued 17.5 sacks last year, second most in the league. Former first overall pick Travon Walker posted 10 sacks in his second year in Duval County. Foyesade Oluokun led the league in solo tackles last year. Newcomers Arik Armstead (41.5 sacks in 128 games with San Francisco), Darnell Savage (pick six in 2024 playoffs), and Ronald Darby (66.3 passer rating allowed when targeted) will help this defensive unit terrorize the AFC South.
This is exactly the type of team to win games it shouldn’t and also lose multiple trap games. If Trevor Lawrence stays healthy, expect a return to the playoffs for the Jaguars. It will get streaky at times in Duval, but the Jaguars will enter the final week of the year leading the division. Can Jacksonville redeem itself for last year’s failure?
Tennessee Titans (2023-24: 6-11, missed playoffs)
This Tennessee Titans team is far from the Cinderella of the 2019-20 playoffs. Ryan Tannehill is gone and without a team. Derrick Henry signed with pseudo-rival Baltimore. Mike Vrabel lost his job. This team is moving into a new era.
Two-time Super Bowl champion cornerback L’Jarius Sneed will anchor a secondary that forced just six interceptions, the worst in the NFL last year. Will Levis will get a full season to prove his worth as an NFL-level starter and he has an intriguing core of skill position players to work with. Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears figure to split lead running back duties. Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd join DeAndre Hopkins in a wide receiver core of outcasts.
This year will not be Tennessee’s year, though. This team has potential to overachieve, but not to the extent Houston and Indianapolis did last year. That wide receiver core does not have a definitive top guy. Levis has not proven his staying power over a whole season. L’Jarius Sneed may not be able to carry the secondary the way Tennessee thinks he can. 2024 will be tough for the Titans, especially in a tough division like the AFC South.
Next week: Will Kansas City’s reign of terror end?
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