In a matter of moments, NCAA tournament games will begin. The grind of non-conference play and the efforts in the new calendar year will come to a head over three weeks of the most unpredictable exhibition of sport in North America. Here are five things to look out for in the East region of the bracket. Check out the West and the South regions, as well.
It’s Duke’s tournament to lose… or is it?
Going into the tournament, the Duke Blue Devils (31-3, 19-1 ACC) are the best team in America. Duke is ranked #1 in the latest AP poll and sits at #1 in KenPom, too. Even without player-of-the-year candidate Cooper Flagg and Maliq Brown, the Blue Devils did just enough to beat North Carolina and Louisville and claim its second ACC tournament championship in three seasons.
Flagg is anticipated to return in the NCAA tournament and not a moment too soon for the freshman averaging 18.9 points per game and 7.5 rebounds per game. Even without Brown, the supporting cast Duke has includes mainstay Tyrese Proctor (12.0 PPG), Kon Knueppel (14.4 and 4.0), and Khaman Maluach (6.8 RPG in 21.0 minutes). If Duke survives opening weekend (which Lehigh and Mercer can attest is never a guarantee), the sky’s the limit.
Arizona and March: Oil and Water
The Arizona Wildcats (22-12, 14-6 Big 12) have been responsible for a lot of busted brackets in recent years. Tommy Lloyd is 0-2 past the first weekend of the tournament and Arizona has not beaten a higher seed in the tournament since 2011. The last time Arizona was a 4th seed, the Wildcats had their show run by a Nate Oats-led Buffalo team.
It would be advisable to tread lightly with Arizona in a tournament setting. That isn’t to say the Wildcats didn’t earn their high seeding, though. Caleb Love is a feast-or-famine scorer (16.6 PPG on 38.6% shooting) and Tobe Akawa (7.8 RPG) can make anyone’s life miserable on the interior. The Wildcats also have six wins over top 25 opponents on the year. This team can run with the best of them, even if its record may say otherwise. The question is whether this team can finally play to expectations in March.
Upset Central? Don’t be so sure.
Here are the potential upsets in the first round:
- #1 Duke vs. #16 American/Mount Saint Mary’s
- #2 Alabama vs. #15 Robert Morris
- #3 Wisconsin vs. #14 Montana
- #4 Arizona vs. #13 Akron
- #5 Oregon vs. #12 Liberty
- #6 BYU vs. #11 VCU
Only twice in the history of the tournament has the top seed lost in the first round. Duke has not lost in the Round of 64 since the aforementioned loss to Mercer in 2014. A 15th-seed has beaten a 2nd-seed three times in the last four seasons, with the 2022 victim being SEC’s Kentucky (KenPom #6 in 2022) losing to Shaheen Holloway’s Saint Peter’s. Will coincidence line up for Robert Morris (26-8, 15-5 Horizon) to beat KenPom #6 Alabama? Nate Oats has lost in the first round while coaching the Crimson Tide, so while it’s highly unlikely, don’t count Robert Morris out entirely.
A 14th seed has beaten a 3rd seed only twice since 2016, but one of those two instances was last year when Oakland defeated Kentucky. Montana (25-9, 15-3 Big Sky) is the luckiest team in America via KenPom but sits at a less-than-desirable 157th in efficiency. That makes the Grizzlies the worst non-16th seed in the field. Akron (28-6, 17-1 MAC) sits 99th in KenPom with the eighth-best scoring offense and 66th-best adjusted offense. As mentioned earlier, Arizona is vulnerable in March, so this may be the upset to commit to.
Ritchie McKay’s Liberty (28-6, 13-5 CUSA) has a tournament win to its name (2019 over Mississippi State). Liberty has a top-ten scoring defense (62.9 PPG allowed) and a top-50 adjusted defense. Oregon (24-9, 12-8 Big Ten), however, knows how to win in March. The Ducks have not lost in the Round of 64 under Dana Altman. VCU (28-6, 15-3 A-10) has a very strong offense (41st in adjusted offense) and an even better defense (23rd in adjusted defense) but has won just one NCAA tournament game in the post-Shaka Smart era. If BYU (24-9, 14-6 Big 12) gets its high-octane offense rolling, it may be curtains for the Rams.
Will BYU break through?
Speaking of the Cougars, BYU is long past due for a win in the NCAA tournament. BYU has not won a game in the NCAA tournament since 2011, its final year in the Mountain West conference. Kevin Young has filled the void left by Mark Pope and assembled a dynamic group with an offense rivaled by few. The Cougars have the 11th-best adjusted offense and a top-30 scoring offense and it’s thanks to a deep lineup.
Eight players on BYU average 7.1 or more PPG, three of them having started less than half of BYU’s games. Richie Saunders leads the team with 16.0 PPG. Keba Keita (7.9 RPG) has owned the glass for the Cougars. Fousseyni Traore is averaging 8.6 PPG and 5.3 RPG in just 17.5 minutes per game. This team has several weapons at its disposal and depth means a lot in March.
Is this the year for Saint Mary’s?
Randy Bennett’s Saint Mary’s Gaels (28-5, 17-1 WCC) have gotten past opening weekend just once in his 24-season tenure. This team has all the right components needed to make it twice in 25 seasons. While only having a top-60 adjusted offense come tournament time is a concern, the eighth-best adjusted defense more often than not makes up for it. The Gaels allow just 60.7 PPG, the fifth-best rate in America.
The Gaels also have a dynamic duo of Lithuanian stars in guard Augustas Marciulionis and forward Paulius Muraskas. Marciulionis runs the offense, leading the team in PPG (14.3) and assists per game (6.1). Muraskas has corraled 8.0 RPG, leading the West Coast Conference. Can it all come together for Saint Mary’s to finally break through?
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