Everything over the past five months has led to these three weeks. All of the Feast Week and Christmas time tournaments and all of the conference chaos have led college basketball to the climax. March Madness is here. Here are five storylines to look for in the Midwest region so you can avoid crumpling up your bracket by Friday. Here are the previews for the three other regions.
Can an eighth seed make the Final Four?
Just six eighth-seeds have ever made the Final Four. At a glance, this Gonzaga team (25-8, 14-4 WCC) is as vulnerable as it’s been in about a decade. The Bulldogs have losses to West Virginia, Oregon State, and Santa Clara. A closer look at this team makes one thing clear: this is a fourth-seed in eight-seed clothing. The supposed eighth seed of the Midwest region is ninth in KenPom and tenth in efficiency via Haslametrics.
Graham Ike does it all for Gonzaga. He’s averaging 17.1 points per game, 7.5 rebounds per game, and shoots 79.7% from the free throw line. He also has elite distributor Ryan Nembhard (10.8 PPG, 9.8 assists per game), quality sixth man Braden Huff (10.8 PPG in 16 minutes per game), and two more quality guards in Khalif Battle (13.2 PPG) and Nolan Hickman (11.0 PPG). This team can do serious damage.
Can Houston handle the pressure of a #1 seed?
Kelvin Sampson’s Houston (30-4, 19-1 Big 12) is no longer the underdog. This is the third straight season the Cougars have earned a 1 seed. Will this also be the third straight season Houston doesn’t win beyond opening weekend? The Cougars’ tournament life will rest on two things: its defense and shooting from distance.
LJ Cryer (15.2 PPG) is shooting 42.2% from beyond the arc and the team is shooting 39.8% from deep. That’s the fourth-best rate in all of Division I and the highest among all NCAA tournament teams. If this team makes its threes, there’s not much any team can do. Houston also can lock down anyone, possessing the second-best scoring defense (58.5 PPG allowed) and second-best adjusted defense. This team passes the eye test and the paper test. Application of skills will be another thing, though.
How far can High Point go, realistically?
High Point (29-5, 14-2 Big South) is riding the Huss Bus into March Madness for the first time in program history. The Panthers have a high-octane offense that is must-see television any time High Point takes the floor. The problem is simple: the Panthers’ defense is subpar.
The Panthers allowed 203 points combined to UNC Asheville in their two meetings and have the 227th-best adjusted defense in the country. This team is designed to win a track meet. The NCAA tournament does have track meets, like last year’s Colorado vs. Florida game. It’s rare this High Point team scores fewer than 70 points, but the Panthers are 2-2 in games they fail to reach 70. The Panthers open against Purdue, whose 63rd-best adjusted defense will need its best performance of the year to avoid another first-round exit. Should the Panthers win, though, they likely face Clemson (16th-best adjusted defense). Should they win that, their three likely opponents are Houston (see the above section), Gonzaga (29th), or Georgia (26th).
Clemson: The Silent Assassins of March
Clemson (27-6, 18-2 ACC) wins games and it doesn’t matter how. The Tigers are one of three teams with a win over Duke this year, have held their opponent under 60 points 12 times, and dropped 85 points on North Carolina. Clemson is a well-balanced team that plays strong on both ends of the court and earned its fifth-seed spot.
Chase Hunter has blossomed into a reliable leader of the backcourt over his time at Clemson. He averages 16.4 PPG, shoots 86.3% from the charity stripe, and hits 41.2% of his three-pointers. He’s joined by a solid forward duo in Ian Schieffelin (12.8/9.4/2.7) and Viktor Lakhin (11.6 and 6.3, 1.5 blocks per game). Brad Brownell has one of the more stacked rosters in Clemson’s recent memory at his disposal. An Elite 8 appearance is hard to follow up. Can Clemson put it all together and go a step beyond?
Choose your upsets carefully
As is the case in the South region, a 12 vs. 13 matchup seems like a real possibility. McNeese and High Point both look like strong conference champions against unassuming Clemson and offense-first Purdue. Kentucky also lost in the first round as the third seed last year. With that in mind, think carefully about which upsets are likelier to happen than not. See the High Point section for a more detailed look at what the Panthers can or cannot accomplish.
Last year, McNeese was a popular upset pick against Gonzaga but lost by 21 in the first round. This year, McNeese will run it back with a squad that is slightly better analytically (currently 60th in KenPom compared to 67th last year) but is 0-3 against other tournament teams.
While Kentucky has not made it past opening weekend since 2019, the bad news for Troy is not only that it is 0-2 all-time in the NCAA tournament but also lost its three games against other NCAA tournament teams by 19 points on average. Perhaps this is the year Kentucky redeems itself.
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