The day is September 27th, 2024, and the Detroit Tigers have clinched their spot in the postseason with a win over the Chicago White Sox. For the first time since 2014, the Motor City will feature October baseball.

Around this time last season, a sellout crowd at Comerica Park cheered as they gave Miguel Cabrera a final farewell into retirement. Fast forward one year, the sellout crowd of 44,435 fans at Comerica Park watched in pure elation as the final out was recorded to send the Tigers into October.

One Month Ago

The day is August 11th, 2024. The Detroit Tigers are 55 – 63. Their playoff chances according to Fangraphs: 0.2%. All hopes of a postseason appearance seemed out the window, yet the Tigers clung onto their 0.2% probability and rode it all the way into October.

Since that faithful day on August 11th, the Tigers have gone 31 – 11, on the backs of their pitching staff, spearheaded by their Cy Young candidate Tarik Skubal, and bookended by Jason Foley shutting the door at the end of games.

Detroit’s Pitching

A wise man once said, “to beat the opponent, you must score more than the other team”. The Tigers have followed the words of the wise man, and scored more than their opponent in 31 of their past 42 games, due in large part to their pitching staff stifling opposing offenses with an MLB best 2.60 ERA since August 11th.

This 2.60 ERA has come on the backs of essentially Tarik Skubal and a rag tag group of relievers. They have had only two starters in their rotation, with the majority of the innings eaten up by openers and bulk relievers.

Tigers pitching since August 11th:

Tarik Skubal – 1.85 ERA (48.2 IP)

Keider Montero – 3.94 ERA (45.2 IP)

Tyler Holton – 0.93 ERA (29 IP)

Shelby Miller – 1.29 ERA (14 IP)

Jason Foley – 2.00 ERA (18 IP)

Beau Brieske – 1.85 ERA (24.1 IP)

Will Vest – 1.89 ERA (19 IP)

Brant Hurter – 2.41 ERA (37.1 IP)

Brant Hanifee – 1.54 ERA (23.1 IP)

Perhaps an even better representation of how dominant their pitching has been, the Tigers have a record of 83 – 42 this season when the offense scores 2 or more runs. The pitching staff needs just two runs on most days for them to shut down the opponent and take the win.

Part of the pitching staff’s success is due in large part to manager A.J Hinch’s decision making and experience. The former World Series winning manager in Houston has been calling all the right shots for this Detroit pitching staff.

“And when I asked you in the middle of the season, remember I asked you, what kind of team do you want to be? I guess you wanted to be a playoff team,” Hinch said in the clubhouse after the Postseason clinching win on Friday.

What followed was an explosion of cheers and champagne popping, much like their performance in the past month and a half.

Detroit’s Offense

While this late season turnaround has been lead predominantly by their pitching staff, the offense has done their job as well, headlined by Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter.

Tigers offense since August 11th:

Riley Greene – .821 OPS

Kerry Carpenter – .962 OPS

Spencer Torkelson – .786 OPS

Parker Meadows – .788 OPS

Zach McKinstry – .773 OPS

Matt Vierling – .771 OPS

Colt Keith – .707 OPS

While the offense didn’t slug their way into the postseason, they did just enough to support the pitching staff and are now headed into the postseason as a relatively inexperienced group. Matt Vierling and Kenta Maeda are the only members of the roster with postseason experience, as they try to mentor the youngest team in MLB this season (26.3 average age).

Rookies

The aforementioned inexperienced group includes the group of rookies who’s stepped up big time here in the final stretch of the season. The Tigers have had 1800 plate appearances taken by rookies this year, 200 more than any other team.

Rookie Colt Keith signed a 6 year, $28.6 million contract prior to the 2024 season, before he ever set foot on a MLB field. He followed it up by struggling immensely in April with a .396 OPS. He has however, impressively flipped the page, where in the 121 games since April 30th, Keith has put up a solid .753 OPS.

Parker Meadows retained his rookie eligibility after collecting just 125 at-bats in 2023. In 80 games this year, Meadows has posted a .737 OPS paired with his solid centerfield defense (5 OAA). He has made his mark this season with multiple home run robberies and most notably, his go-ahead game winning grand slam in San Diego in the midst of their postseason chase.

Trey Sweeney made his way to the Motor City in the Jack Flaherty trade this past trade deadline and was called up to fill in for the injured Javier Baez. In 35 games this year, he’s done a solid enough job, making plays at shortstop, providing 0.9 bWAR.

Winceel Perez, Justyn-Henry Malloy, and Jace Jung all have an OPS near or around the mid-600s, but they have all shown potential at one point or another this season.

Expectations

The expectations for these Tigers may differ depending on who you ask. Some may think they’re rolling all the way to the World Series, while others may think they’re simply a Wild Card exit.

While their true ceiling most likely won’t result in the team hoisting the Commissioner’s Trophy, this team has done more than enough for this season to be deemed a massive success. They sold at the deadline when it seemed like their postseason chances were gone, shipping away their veterans to make way for the youth to gain some experience at the tail end of the season. Instead what happened was this young and experienced group dominated the rest of the league and are now in the hunt for the World Series.

It has been a bleak decade for Detroit baseball, but the following decade is looking much more promising than the last.

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