Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills: Divisional Round
For the third time in exactly one year, the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills will face off at Arrowhead Stadium. In the first meeting between the two, the Chiefs dominated. In the second meeting between the two, the Bills dominated. Sunday’s game will determine who gets the right to play in the AFC Championship game next week. The following is a preview as Kansas City clashes with Buffalo.
WHERE AND WHEN
TIME: 5:30 CENTRAL TIME
LOCATION: ARROWHEAD STADIUM
TV: CBS
BROADCASTERS: TONY ROMO AND JIM NANTZ
WINNING THE TURNOVER BATTLE
Last week’s game aside, winning the turnover battle has been crucial to the Chiefs this season. In week 5 when Kansas City last played Buffalo, they lost the turnover battle 4-0. This was one of the main factors into Buffalo blowing out the Chiefs at Arrowhead. In every game the Chiefs lost this year, they didn’t win the turnover battle. In 2 out of the 5 games, they had four more turnovers than their opponent. Against a red hot Buffalo team, winning the turnover battle could be the key to sending the Chiefs to their 4th straight AFC Championship game.
HOW TO STOP THE BILLS OFFENSE
If you are going to stop the Bills’ offense, you have to make Josh Allen as one-dimensional as possible. When Allen breaks off big run plays, it is devastating to a defense. Keeping Josh Allen “in the well” is going to be key for the Chiefs’ pass rush. If the Chiefs don’t stay disciplined in their rush, Allen will find an open lane and make big plays all day. This means that the outside rusher needs to not get too far upfield, and the interior rush needs to get pressure as quickly as possible. In the first matchup, the Chiefs didn’t sack Allen once. This will have to change this week for the Chiefs to have a chance.
CONVERTING ON THIRD DOWN
One of the main reasons Buffalo’s defense has been so good this season is their third-down defense. During the regular season, the Bills’ defense only allowed a 30.8% conversion rate on third down. Also, Buffalo’s defense was extremely stingy against the pass. During the regular season, the Bills only allowed 4.65 yards per pass play, this ranked first in the NFL. Despite Buffalo’s trashing of New England, the Patriots were 7-14 on third down and 4-4 on fourth down. If the Chiefs hope to be successful Sunday, third down will be a key factor.
PLAYOFF PATRICK
Patrick Mahomes has left his early-season struggles in the dust. Despite the competition getting stiffer in the playoffs, Mahomes seems to get better and better. Through his first 9 playoff games, Mahomes has 22 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions. Mahomes has also shown his ability to beat good quarterbacks in the playoffs. The only quarterback to beat Mahomes in the playoffs is Tom Brady who has done so twice. If Mahomes and the Chiefs are able to dispatch Buffalo, Mahomes would begin his NFL Playoff career going to the AFC Championship game in each of the first four seasons he has started.
COMING OUT FIRING
The Chiefs have made a bad habit out of starting games out slow. Where the Chiefs differ from other teams is normally this works out well for them. In the 7 playoff games that the Chiefs have won since Mahomes has taken over, 5 times the Chiefs have trailed by at least 7 points to begin the game. Infamously in the Super Bowl 54 run, the Chiefs trailed by double digits in all three of their wins. While this has been a mostly successful pattern for the Chiefs, it is ill-advised this week. Getting out to a fast start could be vital to Kansas City’s success this week.
PROTECTING THE QUARTERBACK
Both of these two teams have done a great job protecting their quarterbacks all season long. The Chiefs ranked third best in allowing just 28 sacks this season. The Bills very even better though, only allowing 27 sacks. Whoever gets pressure on the opposing team’s quarterback will get a clear advantage. In this season’s first matchup, Mahomes was sacked twice, while Allen wasn’t sacked once.
GAME PREDICTION
With all of the ups and downs that were presented in the 2021-22 NFL season, this matchup always felt inevitable. When Buffalo came into Arrowhead in week 5 and embarrassed the Chiefs, deep down all of the Red Kingdom saw this rematch coming. The last two matchups have been split. This weekend will be the tie-breaker. As great as both of these teams are in may feel like this game shouldn’t be played for another week. But that just isn’t an option. While it looked like Kansas City needed some extra motivation to start humming last week against Pittsburgh, that won’t be necessary this week. Despite both defense’s efforts, this game feels like it is destined to be a shootout. In a battle of AFC giants, my final score prediction is Kansas City 37 Buffalo 33.
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