Spring Training is officially upon us. Many teams may start adding depth, as the San Diego Padres have done by adding Michael Wacha. As Ken Rosenthal, first reported the deal:

Wacha, 31, was the best remaining starting pitcher left on the free agent market, and arguably the best overall remaining free agent.The right-hander turned in 127 1/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball in 2022 — a fine rebound showing after a tough three-year stretch from 2019-21. The 6% walk rate that he possessed in 2022 was particularly sharp, and he scaled back his home run rate quite a bit in 2022 (1.83 HR/9 from 2019-21; 1.27 HR/9 in 2022).He turned in an 88.2 mph average exit velocity and 35.4% hard-hit rate, which was above average.

Though, his 2022 campaign was better, there were some red flags attached. It included a couple of trips to the injured list, one for an intercostal strain and another for shoulder inflammation, limited him to 23 starts. The shoulder issue was his fourth IL stint due to shoulder trouble dating back to 2014. The strikeout rate (20.2%) and ground-ball rate (41%) were below the league average, albeit by a matter of a couple percentage points each.

Overall, it was a good season for Michael Wacha in 2022. However, he can’t be expected to repeat that success in 2023. Beyond some of last years in-the-shadow numbers, it should be pointed out that from 2019-21, Wacha pitched 285 1/3 innings with a 5.11 ERA between the Cardinals, Mets and Rays. His strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates all compare to that of 2022. However, his biggest struggle was with the long ball.

The likelihood is that Wacha’s true level of talent lies somewhere between the 2019-21 stretch and the 2022 success. Fielding-independent marks pegged him around 4.00 last year (4.14 FIP, 3.99 xFIP, 4.07 SIERA). Which makes the right-hander a solid back end rotation arm, behind Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell.

Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo are expected to be in the battle for a rotation spot as well. It’s not given that Wacha would push either to the bullpen, the Padres could deploy a six-man rotation, which is only sensible given that Martinez and Lugo both worked primarily out of the bullpen in 2022. Martinez made 10 starts for San Diego a season ago, as well as 37 relief appearances, pitching in total 106 1/3 innings. While Lugo has exclusively been a reliever since 2020, when his last start came with the Mets.

Even if, the Padres decide to go with a traditional five man rotation. The addition of Michael Wacha adds some much-needed depth. The Padres are now simply better positioned to withstand an injury to one of their top five arms. That’s important for a team that has had recent trades thin out the depth.

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