The New England Patriots offseason decisions will come with more pressure than usual, as they’ll need to find success in the draft and free agency. After finishing third in the AFC East and having a losing record for the second time in three years, the Patriots are in an unusual position.
Coaching changes
The Patriots season ended after an ugly week 18 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Oftentimes, head coach Bill Belichick will allow his staff some time off after the season ends to relax and recharge before attacking the offseason. This year, owner Robert Kraft wouldn’t allow for that.
In their annual post-season meeting, Kraft and Belichick agreed on one thing. Offensive coaching changes needed to be made… and quickly. After numerous offensive coordinator interviews, the Patriots officially hired familiar face, Bill O’Brien. After interviewing Oregon offensive-line coach Adrian Klemm for a second time, he was officially hired to be the offensive line coach and run-game coordinator for the Patriots. Klemm played for the Patriots from 2000-04 and served time on the Steeler’s staff from 2019-21.
The Patriots offseason started with 23 players set to become free agents. Special teams veteran Matthew Slater has already declared that he will return for the 2023 season, signing a one-year, $2,667,500 contract. The Patriots have also announced the re-signing of offensive tackle Conor McDermott to a two-year extension worth up to $5.1 million. He projects as a backup, but if the Patriots fail to address the position, he could find himself in a more prominent role.
Offensive Needs
They still have Trent Brown under contract, but he fits into a list of guys that could be cut to save cap space.
There are plenty of options that the Patriots can explore when NFL free agency begins March 15. New England will need to fill some holes on their roster that might not be filled in the draft. Many fans are clamoring for a legitimate No. 1 receiver for quarterback Mac Jones. The Patriots are in danger of losing two contributing wide receivers, with Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers potentially signing elsewhere. With Belichick’s history of drafting wide receivers in the first round (i.e. N’Keal Harry), they might benefit from looking in the trade market or via free agency to garner a known commodity.
Some receiver options include JuJu Smith-Schuster, Odell Beckham and Michael Thomas. While they’ve all shown top receiver potential during their careers, there is a lot of unknown. The market for receivers is less-than-ideal for the Patriots, giving them more of a reason to look elsewhere to fill that void.
If the Patriots do indeed let go of Brown and presumably allow Isaiah Wynn to walk, they’ll need to replace both tackles of their offensive line. Including the need for a star wide receiver, the Patriots will have three spots to fill on offense. If they can address one of them in free agency, the draft will become much easier for the Patriots off-season.
Secondary Needs
The Patriots offseason would be complete if they could find a number one cornerback. Historically, Belichick’s defenses have been at their best when they have a shutdown corner. They’re consistently among the top man coverage teams in the league. The Patriots were third in the league running man coverage at a 49% clip, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Patriots had a good draft for corners in 2022, acquiring Jack Jones and Marcus Jones, who contributed in special teams and on offense. Jack Jones was suspended at the end of the season due to being late to rehab sessions. He reportedly ‘talked back’ to coach Belichick in regard to the suspension, so he isn’t on good terms with the team. Marcus Jones is slightly undersized and projects more as a slot corner.
Some top cornerback free agents include James Bradberry, Jamel Dean, and Cameron Sutton. Bradberry had a solid season with the Eagles but is 30 years old and would likely not be a long-term answer. Dean was solid for Tampa Bay and is only 26 years old so that he could be an option. He will demand a high price point, though. Sutton had a good year for the Steelers and has been very durable for them. He’s played in at least 15 games each of his six seasons.
With the potential retirement of Devin McCourty, the Patriots will also be looking for safety help. C.J. Gardner Johnson and Jessie Bates are exciting options but they will come at a significant cost. The Patriots may view a veteran like Jordan Poyer or Vonn Bell as more realistic options.
Front Seven Needs
There are also some holes for the Patriots at the linebacker position. Mack Wilson and Jabrill Peppers are both unlikely to return to the Patriots. They’re in desperate need of speed at that position. Cole Holcomb is an interesting name to watch to fill that role. Holcomb played for the Washington Commanders last season, tallying 69 tackles before his season ended with a foot injury. He fits the role of a buy-low spot for a guy with good starter potential.
Tremaine Edmunds would be an ideal player for the Patriots. He’s a speedy linebacker who will fit the role perfectly, but once again, the cost will be very high. Many of the perfect fits for the Patriots are high-cost free agents.
The pass rush for New England was elite, with Matthew Judon and Josh Uche combining for 27 sacks in 2022. The run defense was top 10 in the league, so there shouldn’t be a significant emphasis on interior defensive linemen this offseason.
NFL Draft: First Round
The Patriots offseason will be completed with the draft. Whatever they fail to address in free agency can potentially be made up for in the draft. New England holds the 14th overall draft pick and will have some good options. They will likely decide between drafting a cornerback, offensive tackle, or wide receiver.
If they choose to draft a corner, Devin Witherspoon of Illinois projects to be the best option. He’s a little undersized 6’0″, but he allowed no touchdowns in 2022. He should be available for them at 14.
Christian Gonzalez, out of Oregon, is another top prospect. At 6’2″, his athleticism and ability to cover one-on-one are outstanding.
Other highly notable corners include Joey Porter out of Penn State and Cam Smith from South Carolina in the first round. Both corners are highly skilled, fitting the mold of shutdown corners. Belichick has had a strong history of drafting corners in later rounds, so don’t be surprised if they wait to draft one.
If they decide to go for an offensive tackle, they might need some luck. The top options are Peter Skoronski out of Northwestern, Paris Johnson out of Ohio State, and Broderick Jones out of Georgia. They all project to be gone or close to gone by the 14th pick, though. A young, talented tackle makes sense to protect Mac Jones for the long term.
Wide receivers are not as abundant at the top of this draft class. Quentin Johnston is a big receiver out of TCU that could be selected at 14. Jordan Addison, the stud from USC, could also be another option. Belichick is not well-known for considering wide receivers early in the draft, but this year could be different. Both of these players would be good choices to help Mac Jones.
Patriots offseason recap
The new league year has yet to begin, but the Patriots already have much to consider. They’ve revamped their offensive staff and have multiple holes to fix on offense and defense. Free agency and the draft are going to be as crucial as they’ve been in recent years for the Patriots.
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