Fresh off one of the biggest comebacks in postseason history, the Jacksonville Jaguars will look to continue their Cinderella run against the top-seeded Chiefs on Saturday. While the Jaguars have won six in a row to make it to Kansas City, the Chiefs have been of the league’s most consistent teams all year. Patrick Mahomes has been dynamic as usual, and Andy Reid‘s squad has proven itself capable of winning close games throughout the season. The Chiefs may be a heavy home favorite, but there are ways the resurgent Jaguars can make this a tight game, and possibly advance to the AFC title game.
The Jaguars are riding high after the third-biggest comeback in playoff history. After falling behind 27-0 to the Chargers in the Wild Card game, Jacksonville went on a miraculous 31-3 run, capped by the game-winning field as time expired. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence responded to throwing four interceptions in the first half by throwing four touchdowns to carry his team to the divisional round. But now the Jaguars must bury the past and focus on the massive road test ahead.
The most important factor for Jacksonville will be how Trevor Lawrence starts the game. Yes, the defense has proven stout at times, and running Travis Etienne has provided explosive runs, but Lawrence controls the Jaguars’ destiny. he will have to maintain the same stoic confidence he tapped into to beat the Chargers, and put together a more consistent performance from start to finish. The Chiefs’ defense has been vulnerable at points throughout the season, so if Lawrence can find some early success and limit the turnovers, the Jaguars could find themselves in a position to win this one late in Arrowhead.
The Chiefs clinched the number one seed and the coveted bye in week 18. While a first-round bye is good for the overall health of a team, it can lead to some complacency and silly mistakes early in the first game back. Expect the Chiefs to try and ease Mahomes into the game maybe a little slower than normal. With the emergence of running back Jerick McKinnon out of the backfield late in the year, Kansas City has the option to utilize him and elite tight end Travis Kelce to establish a short pass game early and find a nice flow.
If the Chiefs can settle in settle in early and possibly even establish a run game, it will make it very difficult for the Jags to hang around. The Chiefs have a distinct talent advantage and a quarterback who can easily exploit it. With McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco in the backfield, and JuJu Smith-Schuster on the outside, there are simply too many weapons to deal with on the Chiefs’ offense. However, if they come out rusty, they risk falling behind early and infusing some confidence into the Jaguars’ defense.
At the end of the day, taking down the Chiefs at home in the playoffs is a monumental task. With the best QB in the league, Kansas City has much more room for error than the Jaguars. Expect Lawrence and the Jaguars’ offense to make enough big plays to keep things competitive, but the Chiefs are simply too much for Jacksonville to handle right now.
Final Score: 31-20 Kansas City
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