LeBron James has surpassed 40,000 career points. Typing this sentence alone feels ridiculous. How is it possible that one man was able to record more than 40,000 points (and counting) as a player? Short answer: it shouldn’t have been. The pure improbability of LeBron James’ 40K is outlandish.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s 38,387 points were once regarded as one of the most unbreakable records in basketball. James has lapped that tally by nearly 2,000 points. And the craziest part is, he still isn’t showing signs of slowing down.
Not only will LeBron’s final point tally never be touched in the NBA again, it’s highly improbable that we’ll ever see someone else reach 40,000 points again. Don’t believe me? Let’s take a look at some live examples.
The Closest Candidates
Surely the guys with the least ground to make up behind James have a realistic route to 40,000 points, right? Well…not so much. The closest active players are Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Russell Westbrook.
Kevin Durant
How about Durant? He’s currently ninth on the all-time scoring list with 28,462 points, just 134 points behind Shaquille O’Neal. The issue, his age. While LeBron has managed to stand the test of time, Durant doesn’t have that same luxury. He’s already 35 years old and lost an entire season to a torn achilles.
Durant is currently 11,538 points from James’ 40K mark. Judging based on averages from his past three seasons, I assume he’d play about 52 games a year for the rest of his career. If he matches his mark of 28.9 points per game in that span, it would take him another eight seasons to reach 40K.
James Harden
Harden is the next best thing, sitting 21st on the all-time scoring list with 25,682 points, just 46 points behind Vince Carter. Much like Durant, age is an issue. Harden is already on the decline as a scorer, putting up his lowest points per game since 2012 at 17.7. Harden is 34 years old, and is now operating more as a facilitator than a scorer.
He is currently 14,318 points from the 40K mark. Based on his averages from his past three seasons, I assume he’d play 60 games a year for the rest of his career. If he matches his mark of 20.3 points per game in that span, it would take him another 12 seasons to reach James’ 40K mark. Hard to imagine a 46-year-old Harden hitting his signature stepback three to give him 40,000 points.
Russell Westbrook
Westbrook is the undisputed triple-double king. He’s also 25th on the all-time scoring list with 25,098 points, just 94 points shy of Jerry West. He’s also deterred by his age, as he’s 35 years old. Westbrook is a far cry from his former MVP status, but is still a pivotal piece off the bench a contending team.
He is currently 14,902 points away from the 40K mark. Based on his averages from the past three seasons, I assume he’ll play 70 games a year for the rest of his career. If he matches his mark of 15.5 points per game in that span, it would take him another 14 seasons to reach 40K.
Stars in the Making
So as you can see, the closest guys simply won’t have the longevity needed to touch 40,000 career points. But what about some of the younger stars?
In today’s league, points are easier to come by than ever. So it’s highly likely that when some of the younger stars reach their peak, they could be on pace to match LeBron’s feat. For this, I took a look at Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, and Victor Wembanyama.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
The Greek Freak is only ten years into his career and has already etched his legacy as one of the all-time greats. He’s an NBA Champion, a two-time MVP and has consistently been one of the best defenders in basketball. But he’s also become an elite scorer.
Currently he’s sitting at 18,156 points. When James was in his tenth season, he was already at 21,081 points, which is absurd. So for Antetokounmpo to chase that 40,000 total, he’d need to average 30 points per game on an average of 65 games a year for the next 12 seasons. It’s possible, but factoring in regression, it seems unlikely.
Luka Doncic
Doncic has been at the top of his game ever since entering the league. He’s an otherworldly scorer, a gifted playmaker, and has the ball in his hands enough to potentially be on pace to reach 40,000 career points. He’s already sitting at 11,004 points just six seasons into his career.
However James was at 12,993 points in his sixth season. But I think Doncic has a better opportunity at reaching James’ 40K mark than anyone else currently in the NBA. Given his gifted scoring ability, if he is to average 32 points per game on an average of 65 games a year, he’d reach 40,000 in 14 seasons. It’s more feasible to see a 38 year old Doncic reach that number, but he’d need to continue his insane scoring numbers.
Victor Wembanyama
It’s no secret that WembyMania is running wild this season. He’s been the most highly touted rookie since James himself, and he’s done nothing but deliver this season. As his first season comes towards a close, he’s currently sitting at 1,160 career points. This puts him just 494 points behind James as a rookie.
So what would Wembanyama need to do to reach 40,000 like LeBron? Well, essentially be LeBron. If he matches James’ 70 games per season, he’d need to average 28 points per game for the next 20 years. Not exactly a small task.
The Improbability of 40K
All in all, what LeBron James has done is nearly unobtainable. We may not ever see another player eclipse that mark in the history of the game.
If you take the ideal rookie, and he’s to play all 82 games, averaging 25 points per game consistently, he’d still need 20 seasons to match that 40,000 point total.
This greatness shouldn’t be understated, it was never supposed to happen, and somehow LeBron James made 40K look effortless.
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