The No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft isn’t traded very often, but 2023’s could already be up for sale with Justin Fields entrenched as Chicago’s quarterback.

Since Houston’s absurd victory over Indianapolis ordered Chicago “on the clock”, Chicago’s selection has been a subject of widespread speculation.

The pick being obtained and each documented shortcoming of quarterback Justin Fields’ early career had combined, creating a belief Bears General Manager Ryan Poles could consider a quarterback come April.

Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio State’s C.J Stroud, Kentucky’s Will Levis, and Florida’s Anthony Richardson make for a talented group which Poles could choose from.

However, Albert Breer quieted much-aforementioned speculation when he shared his own belief via The Rich Eisen Show.

“My sense is that they’re going to move forward with Justin Fields and try to trade the first pick”, said Breer.

Breer’s belief doesn’t mean Fields’ future is certain, which he acknowledged when he continued by saying Chicago’s plan can change once each of Young, Stroud, Levis, and Richardson have been evaluated completely. However, he provided valuable detail by further contextualizing Chicago’s perception of Fields.

“I’ve talked to enough people there that feel like Justin didn’t – there wasn’t enough around Justin to get a really clean evaluation on him last year, and given what he had, what he did was really, really impressive”.

Chicago acknowledging what Fields had around him created a poor environment for proper evaluation can be evidenced by his by which WR he mainly targeted. Outside of Darnell Mooney, Fields mainly targeted Equanimeous St. Brown (35) and Dante Pettis (33).

Providing viable playmaking can be pivotal for how quickly and adequately a young QB can develop and has been more widely acknowledged lately. While Buffalo’s acquisition of Stefon Diggs did yield Minnesota a pick used for selecting Justin Jefferson, acquiring Diggs was pivotal for how quarterback Josh Allen developed and helped him firmly establish himself.

Chicago’s understanding of playmaking (or lack thereof) being critical is a good sign heading into 2023.That being said, Chicago did try providing a playmaker for Fields by acquiring Chase Claypool from Pittsburgh back in November. Clapool is far from Diggs’ level, but he’s a solid piece who should develop more chemistry with Fields heading into 2023.

The idea was sound, but Chicago’s execution was extremely poor. The Steelers acquired Chicago’s second-round pick in return for Claypool, which of course, would become pick No. 32 (Miami’s first-round pick was forfeited). Such a steep price could have been considered much more moderate had Chicago acquired Claypool using Baltimore’s second-round pick instead, which was exchanged for Roquan Smith and would become pick No. 54.

But because of such a high price, and because Claypool and Fields didn’t develop any chemistry (Claypool was often a bystander), Chicago’s acquisition can and should be viewed poorly. During early January’s matchup versus Detroit, Claypool’s first target came with 2:04 left in the fourth quarter, while Chicago trailed by 31.

Playmaking (or lack thereof) aside, Breer’s description of Fields’ campaign being “really, really impressive” can only be backed up by what he did using his legs. Rushing for 1,143 yards, Fields’ athleticism was imposing and his play style created a plethora of highlight reel plays.

Neither score counted, but both are absurd and properly portrayed everything Fields proved he was capable of.

The only quarterback who has exceeded what Fields achieved by yardage is Lamar Jackson, during his1,221-yard 2019. That type of yardage produced by Fields (and Jackson) is very much atypical and has hardly ever been produced by a QB.

The 1,000-yard benchmark has only been cleared by one QB who isn’t Fields or Jackson (Jackson’s 1,012-yard 2020 also cleared): Michael Vick, who produced 1,043 during 2006. A dangerous playmaker, Fields’ showed how he can turn a broken play into a positive gain on a regular basis.

That being said, for everything he proved capable of when using his legs, he didn’t prove he could achieve adequate, or average production using only his arm. Fields leaned into his athleticism, which would frequently be a shield for his poor pocket presence and awareness, which left a lot to be desired and remain a big question mark of Fields’ evaluation.

This was very much evidenced by his percentage of plays which resulted in a scramble (Scramble %) versus the percentage of passes he made from the pocket (In Pocket %).

No quarterback scrambled more frequently or passed more infrequently from the pocket than Fields did, which would very much describe his play style last year.

While Fields’ mark was a clear outlier among each peer and a league-high by a considerable margin, it’s not a poor characteristic.

Scrambling isn’t a bad characteristic whatsoever and can be very beneficial. This has previously been explained by former PFF Senior Data Scientist Kevin Cole, who explored how scrambling and sack avoidance are overlooked when evaluating a quarterback prospect.

Sack avoidance is critical, and Fields’ was woeful. Last year, only Russell Wilson was sacked as much (55x). Wilson’s miserable 2023 was chronicled extensively, and his Scramble % can’t be used for masquerading how often he was sacked how Fields’ can. Still, being sacked frequently can’t become a characteristic of Fields’ should he develop adequately.

Scrambling can and should be considered a plus characteristic of Fields’. His continued development should see the margin between his Scramble % and In Pocket % decrease, and move toward a more sustainable measure which isn’t far above (and below) his peers.

Last year, Fields’ atypical play was measured poorly by each valuable metric used for evaluating quarterback play. Fields’ EPA/Play (-0.14) only exceeded Davis Mills’ (-0.15) and Baker Mayfield’s (-0.16) of each quarterback who played a minimum of 400 Snaps.

Furthermore, both Fields’ Total WPA (0.0) and WPA/Dropback (also 0.0) evidenced how even if he often produced a highlight reel play, Fields’ contribution has been far from optimal.

Each mark placed Fields below 30^th among every quarterback. For example, both NFL and Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes’ 6.1 Total WPA and 0.008 WPA/Dropback were unmatched.

For Chicago, Fields shouldn’t be measured versus Mahomes. Nobody should, and it’s far from a sensible expectation for how he (or anybody) can or should develop. By optimizing his play style and overhauling his pocket presence, Fields can prove Chicago’s belief he can develop adequately is justifiable.

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