WE HAVE A BRACKET. It truly is the most wonderful time of the year, and no, not talking about the Christmas season. The NCAA Tournament First Four starts the madness with two games on Tuesday and Wednesday in Dayton. These games are the perfect appetizer for what is to come in the next couple of weeks. In the last 11 years, 10 of those years have had a team in the First Four win a game in the Round of 64. A great example is the 2021 UCLA Bruins, who won their First Four game and made a run to the Final Four. The NCAA Tournament First Four is set up to be an exciting couple of days.

Bracket

Wagner vs Howard

The NCAA Tournament First Four tips off with #16 Wagner vs #16 Howard in Dayton. These teams are playing for the pleasure of playing the UNC Tarheels in the West. The Wagner Seahawks recently won the Northeast Conference with a win over 2-seed Merrimack. Wagner plays a very slow style of basketball to keep the scoring low. Their run in the NEC was won by Wagner limiting their opponents to under 60 points each of their games in the tournament. On the other hand, the Howard Bison are coming off of a MEAC tournament championship. Howard won three games, scoring 70 points in every game. This makes for an interesting matchup with a good offense vs a good defense. Some key players to watch are Howard’s Bryce Harris and Wagner’s Tahron Allen who both had excellent conference tournaments.

Howard comes in at 3.5-point favorites over Wagner, with an o/u at 128.5. The o/u is insanely low which will make the over a very popular bet, and most likely taken by me.

Colorado State vs Virginia

The next game is #10 Colorado State vs #10 Virginia, the winner playing Texas in the Midwest. The Colorado State Rams are coming off a semi-final appearance in the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Mountain West is seen as a deep league, proven by CSU being a 7-seed in the Mountain West Tournament. The Rams started as one of the hottest teams in the country, beating teams like Creighton on the road and Colorado. They reached #13 in the country twice before falling out of the AP top 25 in January. They average 76.4 PPG, but they play a slow game which is an interesting dynamic given that they lead the country in assist percentage. With that in mind, the Virginia Cavaliers made the tournament. This Virginia team making the tournament has made people mad but it makes sense. Virginia plays a brand of basketball that makes people turn the TV off because of how slow it is. A key for Virginia is to make teams play at their own pace and not make mistakes. Players to watch for these teams are CSU’s Joel Scott and Virginia’s Reece Beekman.

Colorado State is the favorite on Monday at -2.5 with an o/u of 120.5. Virginia is the reason for another LOW o/u which feels like a 61-57 game and hitting the under. The line I like the most is CSU -2.5 just to not bet on Virginia making the Round of 64.

Grambling State vs Montana State

The NCAA Tournament First Four continues with #16 Grambling vs #16 Montana State on Wednesday night. The Grambling State Tigers are the SWAC Champions after being the 1-seed in that tournament. Grambling is another insanely slow-paced team that does not shoot a lot of 3pts, but their defense is what they hang their hat on. One thing that stuck out is they shoot free throws at 70.6%, which could be a potential issue for them. The other team is the Montana State Bobcats. They are coming off a Big Sky Championship beating rival Montana in the Championship. The Bobcats are a team that plays fast and loves to shoot the three. They shoot the three at 36.7% and score 75.1 PPG. Just like the other 16-seed matchup, it is another game with a fast vs slow team. The players to watch are the Bobcat’s Robert Ford and the Tiger’s Tra’Michael Moton.

The line opens with Montana State at -3.5 and the o/u at 134.5. This o/u shows that if the over hits, it will be an advantage for Montana State. I agree with the books and think Montana State will cover the 3.5 points.

Colorado vs Boise State

The last game of the NCAA Tournament First Four is the best matchup yet, #10 Colorado vs #10 Boise State. The Colorado Buffalos are coming off a loss to Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship. Before that game, the Buffalos had won eight in a row and they are peaking at the right time. They are shooting 39.4% from three, and are scoring 79.3 PPG. Colorado has one of the better offenses in the country, with an above-average defense. Lastly, the Boise State Broncos lost to New Mexico in the Mountain West Quarter-finals. The Broncos did not win a game in their conference tournament, eliminating them from national title consideration. Boise State is one of the slower teams in the country and is an average team on offense. Their defense is 29th in the country on Kenpom, which can lead to them turning over Colorado more than the Buffalos would prefer. The key players in this game are Colorado’s KJ Simpson and Boise State’s Tyson Degenhart.

Colorado opens as the early favorite at -2.5 with an o/u at 139.5. That o/u is the highest of the First Four but the spread is just as small as the other games. Colorado seems like the hotter team and therefore will be taking Colorado -2.5.

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