The NCAA Tournament moves West with this side of the bracket. This West Region begins the whole Round of 64 with MSU vs MSU at 11:15 a.m. CT. The NCAA Tournament West Region is the region of upsets. Just sit back, relax, and enjoy the show that is the West Region.

Round of 64 Game to Watch

The game to watch in the NCAA Tournament West Round of 64 is another 7/10 matchup. The matchup is #7 Dayton vs #10 Nevada. The Dayton Flyers enter the tournament off a loss to Duquesne in the A10 tournament and also going 3-3 in their last six. They are led by big man DaRon Holmes, who is averaging 20/8 on 54.5% from the field. Dayton has an elite offense with elite 3-point shooting. The Nevada Wolfpack are coming in 7-1 in their last 8, their only loss coming to Colorado State in the second round of the Mountain West Tournament. The Wolfpack are led by senior Kenan Blackshear, who averages 15/5/5 with 1.4 steals per game. Nevada is a balanced team because they have a top-40 offense and defense on Kenpom which does include shooting 36.5% from three. They both play a slow-paced game, so the key will be who can shoot better from downtown. Nevada can win if they can contain Holmes and that Flyer offense, which is easier said than done.

The line opens at Nevada -1.5 and an o/u of 136.5. I really like the over 136.5 in this game, and if I had to choose a spread it would be Nevada -1.5. I just think Nevada is good enough to shut down Holmes.

UPSET ALERT

As I said in the intro, the NCAA Tournament West Region is the region of upsets. It seems like almost anyone can beat anyone. I think two true upset-worthy teams are above the others, excluding Nevada. The first team with the potential to upset is the #12 Grand Canyon Antelopes. A lot of 5-12 upsets are predicted this year, and I think this is one of them. GCU is coming off of a WAC Championship and winning four in a row. Grand Canyon is just an exciting team that does everything pretty well, but not really one thing exceptionally well. A big part of the Antelopes upsetting the Saint Mary’s Gaels is the production from Tyon Grant-Foster. He is averaging 20/6 while shooting 33.3% from three. If GCU can play with tempo and get Saint Mary’s on their heels, it’ll be a long day for Gael’s fans.

Saint Mary’s opens at a 5.5-point favorite, with an o/u at 131.5. I like taking GCU +5.5 or the over 131.5, maybe both, that is up to you.

Another team that I can see getting the upset is the 11-seed New Mexico Lobos. The Lobos are facing a 6-seed Clemson Tigers team that is #34 in Kenpom. New Mexico is the #23 team on Kenpom, with the #41 offense and #23 defense. The Lobos could quite possibly be the better team in general with the balanced scoring attack. They do not shoo the three especially well, but they do score a lot and they love to push the pace. The Tigers like playing at a slow tempo, so if New Mexico can play at their pace, I do not think Clemson can keep up.

I have a bad habit of picking “upset” games when the team is the betting favorite. The line is New Mexico -2.5 with an o/u at 151.5. This game will end up a shootout and I think New Mexico covers the 2.5.

Watch for Charleston and/or Colagate to make a run at Baylor/Alabama. Alabama has a suspect defense and Baylor is a young team that could make mistakes.

Best Potential Matchup

This is the easiest section to write by far. The matchup everyone is hoping for is an Elite 8 matchup of #1 North Carolina and #2 Arizona. This would be Caleb Love facing off against a team he went to the National Championship with back in 2022. It will be RJ Davis and Armando Bacot facing a former teammate who left them and is now trying to stop them from going to Phoenix. The Arizona Wildcats are an electric offensive team that shoots 37.1% from three and wants to run up and down the floor. The UNC Tar Heels are a team that also likes to play fast, but plays better defense than Arizona. This game will be so fun to watch I just hope they both survive until then.

Players to Watch

1. RJ Davis, UNC: Davis averages 21.4 PPG and is the orchestrator of the UNC offense. He is shooting an unreal 40.6% from three and shoots 87.3 from the free throw line. He was also named First-team AP All-American.
2. Caleb Love, Arizona: Love is averaging 18/4/3 while shooting 34.7% from three. He has been cold as of late, only averaging only 11.6 PPG in the last 5 games. Arizona will be heavily dependent on Love to produce at a Third-Team AP All-American level.
3. Mark Sears, Alabama: Sears was one of the most underrated players in the NCAA. He averages 21.1 ppg along with 4 APG, and 4 RPG. He is shooting an electric 43.1% from three also. Those stats earned him Second-Team AP All-American honors.
4. DaRon Holmes, Dayton: Holmes is a big man averaging 20/8/2 like I said before. He is essential to the success of Dayton. He is averaging 21.2/11 in his last 5. He also earned Second-Team AP All-American.
5. PJ Hall, Clemson: Hall is averaging 19/7 with a 49.2% field goal percentage. He is coming into the tournament scorching hot while averaging 21.25 in his last 4 games.

Best Bets

My best bets include the ones listed in the other parts of the preview so go check those out. My personal favorites are: MSU/MSU over 130.5, Longbeach State +20.5, and I want to take Charleston/Alabama over at 173.5(this is a TBD) but I am going to take Alabama -9.5.

West Champion

The team that will win the West Region is the North Carolina Tar Heels. The Tar Heels are playing some great basketball and are looking to get back to the Final Four after not making the tournament last year. I think the committee wants them fired up after putting Arizona in the same region to keep them motivated to end the Wildcats season.

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