NFL Best Bets: Week 11

Buffalo Bills
Jan 2, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) looks to throw a pass in the third quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at Highmark Stadium. Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Week 10 treated us well as we went four for four on the picks I featured in last week’s article. As the weather begins to cool down, it’s looking like under-season for many of the games on this slate. Let’s see if we can go flawless again with my best NFL bets of week 11, ordered from most to least favorite.

1. Browns vs. Bills (+43)

When: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

Where: Highmark Stadium, NY

If this game even gets played, I highly doubt more than 43 points are scored. Weather reports out of Buffalo say to expect multiple feet of snow over the weekend, so we can expect a run-heavy approach from both teams as passing may be fruitless. This game script should work in the Brown’s favor since they are a run-heavy team and can limit Josh Allen‘s passing ability. So if you don’t like the under in this game, take the Browns (+8.5).

2. Titans vs. Packers (+41)

When: Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Where: Lambeau Field, WI

This week’s TNF game will feature two offenses that lack the weapons on the outside to put up a lot of points. The Titans are the worst offense in the NFL averaging only 281.7 yards per game. The Packers’ offensive struggles have been well-documented, but they were able to get things going last week thanks to Christian Watson. Regardless, in another cold-weather matchup, I expect each team to lean into their strength which is the run game.

3. Jets vs Patriots (+38.5)

When: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

Where: Gilette Stadium, MA

Once again, I’m taking this under for the same reasons listed above. Both teams are below average offensively and would much rather keep the ball on the ground than let their QBs air it out. Furthermore, the forecast in New England calls for 20-degree weather and winds up to 20 mph. This should be another low-scoring affair between two stout defenses.

4. Raiders vs. Broncos (+41)

When: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

Where: Empower Field at Mile High, CO

I’m not taking this under for the weather, but for the fact that the Broncos have gone under in eight of nine games this season. The Broncos’ offense averages the least points in the NFL and just lost their most explosive target in Jerry Jeudy. Conversely, their defense allows the fewest points in the NFL, and will be facing a struggling Raiders team without Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller.

(All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)

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